Welcome back! In Part 1, we examined the draft selection of Udoka Azubuike, and some of the reasons why I disagreed with the pick. If you haven’t read that piece first, I’d recommend it because it’s a nice primer, but if you didn’t, that’s fine too! Here, I’m going to dig deeper into what makes a player valuable.
On-Ball Creation
Quite simply, the best basketball players are the ones who make good things happen for their team when the ball is in their hands. This can look many different ways; Steph Curry can pull-up from anywhere, Trae Young can throw absurd passes, LeBron James can drive down the lane like a freight train and either dunk or kick it to the corner for a three, Kevin Durant can use his length to shoot over anyone, and Joel Embiid can punish defenders in the post. On-ball creation is the biggest difference maker between a superstar player and a role player. When James Harden has the ball, defenses have to play differently than when Landry Shamet has the ball. There isn’t a truly elite player in the NBA that can’t cause problems for the other team with the ball in their hands. While players such as Brook Lopez or Cameron Johnson bring a lot of value to their respective teams, they cannot act as a primary hub of offense. Lastly, those who can create for others as well as themselves bring a greater level of dynamism, so to me, those players are the most valuable archetype.
Signature Skills
Specifically with regard to the draft, it is crucial for players who cannot be an offensive hub to have a signature skill that will allow them to get time on the court. No one will ever confuse Matisse Thybulle with Paul George, but he has been able to get minutes because of his defensive prowess. The value of his elite, pestering, chaos inducing defense allows him to spend time on the court, help his team, and gives him the opportunity to develop his skills in actual game scenarios. Meanwhile, Luka Šamanić, who was taken directly in front of Thybulle, has struggled to gain any traction. The jury is still out on him, but it has been hard for him to find a spot in the San Antonio Spurs rotation, as there isn’t one specific thing he can do to impact winning. It’s not that you can’t be a jack-of-all-trades player, it’s just that you have to be a very good one to get opportunities early in your career. When you draft a specialist, you’re taking someone who you know can bring value in a particular area and contribute. With the generalists, it’s trickier.
Flaw Severity
This item matters more for teams that are actively looking to compete, but I think teams that are in the process of rebuilding and hope to contend down the road should strongly consider it as well. Is a player so flawed in any one given area that he can be forced off the floor during big games? I think back to when the Golden State Warriors kicked off their dynasty by deciding to completely ignore Tony Allen when the Grizzlies were on offense. Despite Allen being one of the best defenders in the league, he was rendered unplayable! We’ve also seen this happen to several centers over the last few years, as teams will go small, and the opposing big man won’t be able to guard the other team’s players out in space. That alone has devalued big men who can’t adjust to smallball. I’m far less interested in prospects that project to have flaws that could see them struggle to play in big games.
Positional Versatility
As the league has become more pick-and-roll heavy and movement oriented, the ability to switch on defense has become more valuable. If you’re too small, advantage creators like LeBron James can back you down on the block. If you’re big and slow, LeBron can drive right past you. Teams can create defensive schemes to protect weaker defenders, but the ability to cover multiple positions is a big plus. This also can give you advantage offensively, as a player like LeBron could theoretically play point guard and give the Lakers a gigantic lineup, or he could play power forward when they want to go smaller and more athletic. Giving your team the ability to morph into different forms is good!
Skillset Uniqueness
Every year, several forwards with long arms who can’t shoot are labeled “the next Draymond Green,” and it makes me want to become The Joker. The truth is that Draymond Green has one of the most strange skillsets in basketball history, and it has proven incredibly difficult to replicate. Still, teams convince themselves every year that they’ve found the next one. Yet here we are in 2021, and there is still only one Draymond Green. That makes Draymond Green even more valuable; he’s awesome, and there’s only one of him! Conversely, a player like Robin Lopez made much less than Draymond last year, because a lot of guys can do the things Brook Lopez does. When teams are drafting, it is paramount that they ask themselves, “how easily can I find a guy like the one I’m drafting?” This is largely why I’m opposed to selecting basic skillset centers at the top of the draft, as there are an abundance of them.
Off-Ball Capabilities
This is a tricky one, particularly with college players who have lived their entire lives as the best player on their teams. The NBA has 30 teams, so only 30 guys get to be the best player on an NBA team. With that being the case, it’s important for players to be able to play without the ball in their hands on offense. Can you make cuts, set screens, come off of screens, or hit catch and shoot jumpers? If you can’t find a way to create gravity without the ball, the defense can abandon you and swarm your team’s better players instead. It also won’t make your coach want to give you playing time. Teams often undervalue off-ball capabilities by selecting players who were on-ball players in college, but won’t be good enough to be an on-ball player in the NBA. As a result, the player will end up floundering because they don’t have a skillset that is translatable to a more tertiary role.
Shooting
Three points are worth more than two, so it is good to have players that can make the shots that give your team three points. I know that’s a lot to take in, so you can re-read that last sentence if you’d like. Shooting is also critical for giving your offense spacing. There are different levels to being a good shooter; the best ones can do it off the catch, off the dribble, and off of movement. Even if you can only do one or two of those, that is still much more preferable to being a non-shooter in today’s spacing based offenses. We again must go back to Tony Allen getting completely ignored in the playoffs, and how costly that was for the Grizzlies at the time.
Age
It feels like every year during the draft, they bring a college basketball analyst onto the broadcast who gets extremely pissed off and turns bright red yelling about how teams should be selecting (insert 24 year old college senior here) because IT DOESN’T MATTER HOW OLD HE IS, HE CAN PLAY THE GAME, DAMN IT! ISN’T THAT WHAT THIS IS ALL ABOUT?! Well, yes and no. Often times, the older college player may look like they can play the game, but it could be because they are essentially a grown man playing against children. Historically, older players who are picked during the lottery portion of the draft do not nearly pan out as well as you would think. They’re also not as “ready to play” as someone would have you believe. A great example in last year’s draft would be Obi Toppin, who struggled to get significant playing time despite being hailed as a ready-to-contribute, surefire pick. He got better throughout the season, and he even saw some time in the playoffs, but in a redraft, he would probably go much lower than he actually went on draft night. The fact is, young players have a longer path ahead of them, and they’ll get to spend more time early in their basketball journey with the best resources on earth.
Passing
If you look at championship level teams, they rarely give significant minutes to players who are below average passers for their position. If a player is a below average passer, they can offset that depending on role or usage. A drive-and-dunk big man or three point sniper can get away with it a little bit, but if you aren’t exceptional in another area, it’s hard to get by at the highest levels of basketball without the ability to make good, smart passes.
Positional Size/Rebounding
Having positional size is crucial, especially for seeing the floor out of the gate. Undersized point guards probably have it the hardest. The success rate on sub-6’1” point guards is very low. You need to either have blinding speed like Ish Smith, ridiculous scoring ability like Isaiah Thomas, or be Chris Paul. Being a small point guard makes it hard to convert around the basket, and you’re a target for switches on defense. That’s not a great combination! For undersized big men, it’s hard to protect the rim and grab rebounds. You even see this bare itself out with wingspan; a player like Frank Kaminsky can stretch the floor on offense, but he has such a hard time defensively and on the glass due to his shorter arms. Wingspan can be a rough obstacle for wings to overcome, also. Tyler Herro struggled in the finals last year because he had a hard time keeping players in front of him. His footwork could be better, sure, but even if it was, not having that extra extension makes a big difference. Regarding positional rebounding, as the league goes smaller, it is becoming increasingly valuable to have smaller players that can crash the glass. It’s hard to go small if you are going to get killed on the glass. As time goes on, I feel that we’ll start to see the marketplace value small rebounders more for the versatility they add to rosters.
Free Throw Attempts (And Making Free Throws)
Getting fouled is a skill. I know it drives people crazy when players purposefully create contact in an effort to get to the line, but the fact is that free throws are one of the easiest ways to score points, if you can make them. The Points Per Possession generated by free throws make it so that getting to the line is more valuable than just about any other shot on the floor. For that reason, getting to the line is valuable! Still, you have to make free throws. I’m almost entirely put off by subpar free throw shooters. We are coming off of a playoffs where we saw Hack-A-Ben do a number on the confidence of Ben Simmons, and hurt the 76ers offense as a whole. When you can’t convert at the line, you become unplayable at the end of games, because you’re an easy target for the other team. If you can’t play in the final minutes of games, you’re far less valuable.
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Those are my favorite areas of value. There are plenty of microskills and other things players can do, but these are the big ones to me. I’d love to hear what areas of basketball you weight the most when it comes to evaluating players! Let me know @BaumBoards on Twitter.
Have a great day!