The BaumBoards Mailbag, Issue One
I answer your questions about the 04/05 Pacers, if Jordan stayed retired after his first three-peat, strange draft busts, if Jimmy stayed and Ben went, league expansion, and more!
Mike asks, “What happens with the Pacers if Stern doesn't torpedo their 2004-05 season?”
If all else stays the same, I earnestly believe they play for the NBA Championship that season. The Pistons ended up coming out of the East, and I thought the Pacers were a better team. They had stars, depth, and an answer at each turn of the Pistons’ roster. On top of that, I think they were the one team who would refuse to be intimidated by the Pistons defense. This was also a year where the Pistons weren’t shooting well in the playoffs, with Tayshaun Prince hitting the highest percentage from deep (36.7%) on the roster, trailed by Chauncy Billups at an uncharacteristically low 34.9%. Though defense was their trademark, the Pistons offense was rudderless in the playoffs, and it’s hard to imagine them not getting outgunned by the likes of Stephen Jackson, Ron Artest, Jermaine O’Neal, Jamaal Tinsley, and Reggie Miller over the course of a series.
The other threat out East was the Miami Heat, who were a tad shallow, but still a strong team. It was the first year of the Wade/Shaq pairing. While Shaq was a force, he was beginning to fade. Wade hadn’t quite reached peak form yet, and became predictable. He was shooting 10% from three on under one attempt per game, so you knew he was driving or posting up when he got the ball. Between Wade’s simplistic game, Shaq failing to reach 20 PPG for the playoffs, and a lack of firepower past Eddie Jones and Damon Jones, I don’t think the Heat were ready just yet.
In the Finals, the Pacers would have met a San Antonio Spurs roster that was in an interesting state of flux. Tim Duncan was awesome (as he was his whole career), but now Manu Ginobili had truly arrived, and Tony Parker was still on his ascent. The rest of the roster was interesting, with one younger contributor and a bevvy of older veterans. Nazr Mohammed was a strong defensive center next to Tim Duncan, and I feel like people forget that he was really good! His counting numbers were never gaudy, but you couldn’t toy with him, and he held position well. Brent Barry was there just to shoot threes, and he could still do that. Bruce Bowen was there just to play defense and hit threes, and he did both. Robert Horry was there to…be Robert Horry and do all of the things you need him to do so you win games. Horry ended his career with seven rings because he was versatile defensively, he could shoot, he could rebound, and he never shrank in the spotlight. The three All-Stars at the top are eye-catching names, but the Spurs had a true All-Star ensemble of role players as well.
While the Pacers triumvirate of Artest, Jackson, and O’Neal holds up well, you’d be asking a lot out of Fred Jones, James Jones, and an aging Austin Croshere, who was starting to fade. I think ultimately the Spurs still win the championship. Duncan and Mohammed could nullify O’Neal by ignoring Croshere. Artest and Jackson would have made things tough on the Spurs guards and wings. Still, they would also have to deal with Bruce Bowen covering them, and being tasked with generating offense while taking tough defensive assignments. The Spurs would have stronger perimeter creation, superior rim protection, and more trustworthy depth. I’m taking the Spurs, but I think it would have been a bloodbath and a close series.
Mike also asks, “What is the NBA title scene like in 96-98 if Jordan stayed retired?”
96 is interesting. The Bulls and Magic both reached the conference Finals with relative ease that year, so I think the Magic absolutely win the East if Jordan isn’t there. Kukoc and Pippen both had a rough playoffs that season, and I don’t see that changing with a bigger load. That brings us to a Sonics/Magic final. Hardaway vs. Payton would have been an absolute treat to witness. Still, I’m leaning Magic, as the Sam Perkins/Ervin Johnson/Frank Brickowski triumvirate would have been in deep trouble against Shaq. The Sonics had more depth and shooting, but I’m banking on Shaq’s dominance.
Now, take a minute to consider the historical ramifications! We are now assuming that Shaq DOES NOT LEAVE ORLANDO! The man has won a title, the Magic front office open their pocket books, and Shaq is sticking around! So we end up getting back-to-back Magic/Jazz Finals, and I think the Jazz manage to take at least one by virtue of their shooting. Still, you could talk me into the Penny/Shaq three-peat if Jordan stays retired. On top of that, you potentially have a universe where Kobe and Shaq never play together, which drastically changes how the early 2000’s take shape.
@AnthonySkatz asks, “As a Sixers fan, the Markelle Fultz bust feels like the fulcrum to everything that has happened with the team since in trying and failing to rectify it by finding that elite guard shot creator. If he pans out, so much changes. For you, what's the Bulls' equivalent draft bust?”
It’s actually very funny that you bring this up! When I wrote my Bulls piece, there was one omission that hit me like a ton of bricks. My friend Phil pointed out that I missed out on the entire Jay Williams saga!
For those too young to recall, or for those who simply weren’t following the awful post-Jordan Bulls, Jay Williams was a stud point guard coming out of Duke, and was the number two pick in the 2002 NBA Draft. Williams was far more reminiscent of a modern point guard than one of that era. He wasn’t so much a table setter, more of a scorer. Williams drove to the rim and got to the line consistently, and he launched threes at a high clip, an astounding 8.1 times per game during his junior season. That was a ridiculous amount of triples to take during that period, and only three Division 1 players took more than him that year. On top of the attempt numbers, Williams hit those shots at a 38.3% clip, a tremendous percentage given the high volume. Williams won every “Player of the Year Award” on earth, and despite an early exit from the NCAA tournament after some bad free throw shooting in a clutch situation, he was still seen as the consensus number two guy after Yao Ming. In his 2002 draft grades column, Chad Ford wrote the following:
“Jay Williams is the best player in the draft right now. Tough to knock Chicago there. Williams will quickly become the leader of this young team. Tyson Chandler and Eddy Curry will benefit from his ability to run the break and penetrate and dish. With his poise and court savvy, I'd expect him to add 10 wins to the Bulls next season.”
That’s high praise from THE draft expert at the time! Williams would also be a giant spacing positive because of his long range launching ability. Unfortunately, he didn’t come out of the gate hot. Instead, Williams had a disappointing rookie season where he shot below 40% from the field and a meager 32% from distance. Still, his assist numbers were strong, and there was reason for optimism headed into year two.
Year two never happened. Shortly after the conclusion of his rookie season, Williams would get into a motorcycle accident, tearing three ligaments in his leg and SEVERING THE MAIN NERVE IN HIS LEG! NO THANKS! The Bulls seemed to be under the impression that Williams was done, and they drafted their new point guard in Kirk Hinrich a week later. Williams never played in the NBA again.
Though the Bulls somewhat plugged their position of need with Hinrich, he was never going to become what Jay Williams could have been, which was a franchise player or an All Star. The thing that doomed the Baby Bulls Era was their lack of a true difference maker; a go-to-guy as the centerpiece. Williams, on paper, was supposed to be that person. Instead, we never found out if that was achievable.
There has never been a comparable situation to Markelle Fultz, but I think Jay Williams may actually be the closest. Both were dynamite college point guard with high expectations who didn’t meet them due to abnormal circumstances. A motorcycle accident and the situation that surrounded Fultz are obviously quite different, but it’s as close as I can get. I am arbitrarily declaring that this is, in fact, horseshoes and hand grenades, so there’s your answer.
@Tholzerman asks, “In the spirit of the Marvel What If? show, what if the Sixers chose Jimmy Butler in 2019 instead of Ben Simmons and Brett Brown?”
I don’t know how much power the Sixers truly had here, as it seems like Jimmy was really enamored with all things Miami Heat. Still, I think the Sixers would have been better with Butler in hindsight. Butler had a great regular season playoffs with the Heat during 2019-2020, and a great regular season in 2020-2021 before fading in the playoffs. There a few big, big upgrades that happen if Butler stays:
-We avoid all things BEN DRAMA~! This includes the grating “DO BEN AND EMBIID WORK?!” talk show segments, the recent playoff collapse and subsequent trade request, all of it.
-The “elite shot creator” dilemma noted by Skatz in the last question is a significantly smaller problem. Butler is great at both getting his own buckets and facilitating for others. While he isn’t a true threat from deep, he is more of one than Simmons, and it would be easier to fit another playmaker next to him because he doesn’t have the offensive fit issues that plague Simmons.
-The Sixers would cash out on Simmons with much higher trade value. While Simmons wasn’t spectacular in the playoffs during that run, he did voice his frustration about being left parked in the dunker spot on offense. A team offering a package for Ben along with the promise of “we will play through you” is likely more appealing to him and his management. Additionally, it’s easier to get a strong trade return coming off of a, “well, that wasn’t ideal” playoff performance than a, “uh oh, did he just Nick Anderson himself?” playoff performance.
-A coach is hired that isn’t Doc Rivers. I’m not a big Doc Hater, but I believe he is a subpar strategist compared to other top coaches, and he can be inflexible. The 76ers failed to try smallball in earnest with the bench groupings, he tried to stick with the bench line ups in the playoffs for far too long, and he has a hard time giving time to younger players even when veterans (*cough* MIKE SCOTT *cough*) are struggling mightily. In the 2019 Coaching Class, there aren’t a lot of splashy names. At the time, Monty Williams may have been a headscratcher, but he’s been phenomenal in Phoenix. He’s developed talent, done well with chemistry, and is a master of out-of-bounds and after-time-out play calling. I would much rather have him as my coach, regardless of the situation.
-We avoid my least favorite Sixers Squad of all-time, The Big Beefy Boys Sixers. Look, on paper, it seemed fun and cool. In reality, it was rough. The 2019-2020 team was brutal from an entertainment perspective. There was a clogged paint, little off-the-dribble playmaking, and not much movement. I can’t stand watching a bunch of players stand around when no one is doing anything off the bounce. I didn’t mind the James Harden Rockets teams that a lot of people complained about, because ultimately, you could sit back and just watch Harden cook. That was fun! When Josh Richardson (who I vehemently defended when the Sixers traded for him, big time L on my part) does it, it’s the opposite of fun.
Anyway, time to drink three sips of beer to calm down.
@Smoothiegeneral asks, “As a cynic and Clippers fan, why did 6ixers fans think Doc would be able to lead them to the finals? After seeing him crash, what, 3 years in a row(?), with griffin, reddick, jordan etc. what was/is the appeal of him as a coach?”
Let’s stay on the Doc topic for a bit. There are definitely things you can point to with the Clippers teams that make his shortcomings there excusable. First off, they were often really shallow because they were financially hamstrung. Still, GM Doc should never have existed, and it’s astounding in hindsight that they didn’t attract more minimum contract ring-chasers to Los Angeles. The second issue was the general fit with DeAndre Jordan and Blake Griffin. Both did their best work close to the basket and weren’t able to stretch the floor at that point. Plus, Blake was too small to line up at the five at that time, so you felt like you had to play DJ, and then the court was congested at the end of games. On top of that, DJ was a prime Hack-A-Shaq target.
I believe the primary appeal was his reputation; he is a former champion who carries respect, has credibility, and has historically done a great job of managing egos. The idea was that Brett Brown was perhaps too soft on Ben and Joel, and let them have a longer leash because he wanted to be on their good side early in their careers. The team just needed a new voice! Doc could come in, tell them what they needed to change, and they would be more likely to listen to him, since he was a winner with an outside perspective. In reality, I don’t know that there is anyone who can change how Ben Simmons plays other than Ben Simmons himself. It was a faulty premise in hindsight, and I don’t know what the next move is on the coaching front.
Tyler asks, “Any chance we could get your extended thoughts on the Cavaliers current situation in the mailbag? The Lauri trade still baffles me, and the Love standoff doesn’t look to be ending anytime soon.”
To be quite honest, I thought the Lauri trade stunk for the Cavaliers. As a frequent Bulls viewer, I’m thrilled I won’t have to watch him as much going forward. The walls are closing in on his chance to become a winning player, and he is seemingly oblivious to it. He wants to be a starter, but he doesn’t add positive value anywhere. He’s had years where he is a good three point shooter, but he’s had others where he isn’t, and that is supposed to be his calling card. Because of how poor of a defender he is, the fact that he’s not a good decision maker or passer, and his inability to create anything offensively, Markkanen has to be a lights out three point shooter to stick. Not to stick as a starter, just to stick as a good player. He hasn’t shown any consistent improvement in his game, and I don’t believe there’s a reason to expect that to change. Plus, even if he works out…then what? You just drafted Evan Mobley and signed Jarrett Allen to a big contract. Are you going to trade Lauri? Trade one of the other two bigs? It was a strange place to take a flier, I thought the contract was an overpay, and I think they could have gotten a better return for Larry Nance.
As a whole, the roster feels like a hodgepodge right now. There are players I like but believe are poor fits together (Sexton and Garland, Mobley and Allen), intriguing young guys (Isaac Okoro and Lamar Stevens), and veterans who may or may not have something left in the tank (Ricky Rubio and Kevin Love). I do expect Rubio to bounce back, as I don’t believe he’s shot athletically, and smart, long players age well. With the Kevin Love standoff, I don’t see an end in sight either. I can’t imagine a scenario where anyone trades for him without Cleveland having to send out assets, and a buyout isn’t a thrilling option, though that’s probably the most likely conclusion. I see the Cavaliers as a team that will not win much this upcoming season and is in a tricky financial position going forward. The rest of the East got much better, and the Cavaliers didn’t take a similar step forward. With the Allen and Markkanen contracts plus Kevin Love’s money, and a potential Sexton extension on the horizon, things are about to get interesting on the salary cap front. Still, there is a plethora of young talent between Allen, Mobley, Sexton, Garland, and Okoro, so there is a chance that in the long run, it all works out. They just haven’t made it easy on themselves.
@MattCWaters asks, “Two expansion teams are being added in an upcoming season. What cities should they be in (naming the teams is optional) and how would you adjust the divisions accordingly?”
I love talking expansion! It seems crystal clear that we will be getting the Seattle SuperSonics again, which is awesome; they never should have gone away in the first place. It sounds like Las Vegas is the favorite to get the other team, which is a huge bummer to me. Las Vegas is a cool city, but I don’t know that it’s a SPORTS city. It’s a cool city for special events like All-Star games or the NCAA tournament, but I don’t know that it works for local sports teams yet, though the sample size is small. In 2019, the Las Vegas Aces finished 9th in attendance out of 12 WNBA teams, which feels even worse when you consider they were still new to the area (only their second season in Vegas), and they were winning! They finished the season with a 21-13 mark. I get it, a bunch of billionaires who want to buy a team live there, but the idea of adding a small market team in a city that isn’t craving basketball doesn’t appeal to me.
I think a sneaky fun location would be the Hampton Roads! The Norfolk/Virginia Beach area is rich in basketball history as the birthplace of Allen Iverson, has a large population, is on the beach (always a draw for players), and is in a sports-starved area. Virginia doesn’t host any major pro teams, and college athletics aren’t so exceedingly popular that you’ll have a Charlotte Hornets situation where the college teams are bigger than the professional option. Plus, there is a lot of great food there (Handsome Biscuit is my favorite breakfast joint in America), and the region is gorgeous. Give me the Hampton Roads Rhinos.
As far as divisions go, you would now have 32 teams. NBA divisions are largely meaningless, so I would consider three trajectories for each conference: abolishing them entirely, four 8-team mega-divisions that are reconstructed every season based on record the year prior, or 8 localized 4-team divisions. The 8 divisions option is the tidiest and would make travel the easiest, so that’s the most likely course of action.
@Kody asks, “Is Payton Pritchard the next big thing? Kid dropped 92 points in the summer league!”
*WELL, ACTUALLY VOICE* The 92 Points were in a Pro-Am game, not Summer League!!!!! Still, Pritchard’s games at the actual NBA Summer League were tremendous. He flirted with 50/50/90 shooting splits, and any time the defense was out of position, he found the open man in an instant. Pritchard was clearly too good for the competition there, and I think he will be a good NBA player for a long time. He was also someone I was lower on heading into the 2020 NBA Draft!
I believe I missed on him for two reasons: he was an inconsistent three point shooter in college so I was iffy on his shooting, and I didn’t think he would be able to hang defensively. The shooting thing was pretty stupid of me in retrospect, as he always took a high volume of them, and he hit 37.9% over his college career, so even if he isn’t consistent year-over-year, he’ll still be respectable. The defensive side of things is one of those “sometimes you don’t know until you know” situations. Evaluating defense is tricky, because most young players aren’t good defensively and tend to grow inattentive, especially when they are tasked with a heavier offensive load. That makes determining which guards and wings will be good NBA defenders tricky. Often times, physical tools can be over valued. In the case of Pritchard, I assumed because he wasn’t always engaged and didn’t have ridiculous athleticism and long arms, he would be a negative defensively. Instead, he was keyed in well throughout this season, and any issues came more from his size more than anywhere else. No one is going to nickname him “Gary” Payton Pritchard, but he held his own.
Whether Pritchard is more of a starter or high-end reserve will come down to how he is able to handle defensive responsibilities, and how his offensive game continues to progress. I don’t imagine him ever being above-average for a starter, but he was a great value for where the Celtics drafted him.