Prospect Overview 3/1/2022: The All-Underdog Team
PLUS: Chet Holmgren's potential versatility, Gabriele Procida, Ziga Samar, and three multi-year Big Ten prospects worth monitoring!
Saturday was WILD. The top 6 teams in college basketball were all knocked down a peg by lower ranked opponents. The upsets didn’t stop there, though. 9th ranked Texas Tech was upended by TCU. My personal favorite underdog victory of the weekend didn’t involve any ranked teams: a 23-4 New Mexico State team that has been knocking on the door of the Top 25 fell to 7-21 Chicago State. Yes, the same Chicago State that started last year 0-9 before saying, “Uhh, yeah, we’re good” and voluntarily ending their own season ON DECEMBER 23RD! We truly live in unprecedented times.
Upsets, underdogs, and Cinderella stories are what make college basketball so much fun. It’s not just the unpredictable nature of the sport that makes it so appealing, though that is certainly a part of the equation. What makes college hoops special is the element of overcoming adversity; players who are perceived to be less talented but come together to form something greater than the sum of their parts, and in doing so, topple more talented foes. It’s simultaneously thrilling and beautiful.
This week, we’re celebrating the underdog, and doing so in BaumBoards fashion: by making it all about the NBA Draft. I’ve constructed the first ever BaumBoards All-Underdog Team! These are my favorite prospects who deserve the underdog label for one reason or another. Let’s jump right in!
Point Guard: Mike Miles, TCU
At 6’1”, Mike Miles doesn’t have ideal positional size for the NBA. His stats read like he’s an out of control gunner; 15.3 PPG on 38.4/29.5/73.5 splits, and 4 assists to nearly 3 turnovers per game. On paper, Miles is an undersized guard who can’t score or distribute efficiently. They don’t play the games on paper, though; you can actually watch them on your television! And if you watch the games, you know that Mike Miles is so much more than his numbers. I’m not sure that there is a player in college basketball who faces more explicit attention that Mike Miles. Outside of Miles, TCU doesn’t have much offensive firepower, particularly in terms of shot creation. Miles isn’t just a part of the offensive engine; he is the offensive engine. As a result, teams center their entire scheme around undermining him. He’s constantly swarmed, doubled, and blitzed. The fact that his numbers are even where they are is a minor miracle.
Given the unfortunate nature of his team environment, you have to examine the flashes with Miles. Thankfully, they’re spectacular. He can score off the bounce from deep behind the three-point line, he has a snappy release, and he is *insert Jim Ross voice here* quicker than a hiccup. Miles is sudden. His burst with the ball and quickness to relocate off of it is truly his elite skill. In a one-on-one sitting or more traditional pick-and-roll, he can wreak havoc with his explosiveness and ability to pull up off the dribble. Unfortunately, because he’s constantly getting hounded, we don’t get to see much of it. Still, Miles has put up a series of signature performance this season, spearheading upsets over LSU on 19 points, 6 assists, and 8 rebounds, and more recently Texas Tech on 26 points, 4 assists, 4 rebounds, and 5 steals.
Miles doesn’t look the part, and neither do his stats. If he puts his name into the hat for the 2022 Draft, don’t let those things fool you; Miles can put a hurting on the best competition out there.
Shooting Guard: Tevin Brown, Murray State
If Tevin Brown snuck up on you, or if he hasn’t even been on your radar at all, that’s completely understandable. 247Sports ranked him 281st in his high school class back in 2017. After enrolling at Murray State, he suffered an injury that led to him redshirting his first year on campus. Since then, Brown has not only stayed healthy, but he’s emerged as the best player on one of the best teams in college basketball. The 6’5” guard is scoring 16.4 PPG on 43.2/39.3/77.6 splits while bombing away with an impressive 8 three-point field goal attempts per game. Brown isn’t just some catch-and-shoot chucker, either. He averages 3.0 assists to 1.9 turnovers and has real skills as a ballhandler and distributor. The icing on the cake is his combination of athleticism, motor, and defensive instincts. Brown can get off the floor well, and despite his heavy offensive workload, he still puts in a high level of effort on the defensive end. The result? 1.4 steals and .6 blocks for game to go along with a 2.3 STL% and 2.0 BLK%.
I understand the reservations; Brown is a redshirt senior who is listed at a potentially dubious 165 pounds and he’s putting up these gaudy numbers at a mid-major. The good thing is that his frame hasn’t presented any problems against high-major competition. Brown was 8-for-16 for 22 points, 7 rebounds, 4 assists, 1 block, and 1 steal against Memphis. When Murray State met Auburn, he put up 22 points on 8-for-15 shooting with 9 rebounds, 2 assists, and 2 steals. There is a real scalability to his game. Despite his size, conference, and age, the idea of betting against him terrifies me. Tevin Brown, much like Bozo Dubbed Over, is not even supposed to be here. But nevertheless, here he is.
Before we get to our starting small forward. Let’s do a thought experiment. Where would you put the following player on your draft board?
-20 years old. Great athlete. Ability to guard multiple positions. 6’5” with a 6’10.5” wingspan. 50.9/40.0/75.3 shooting splits. 13.2 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 4.6 APG, 1.5 SPG, 0.1 BPG, 2.1 TOV. Plays for a Top 10 team.
Right now, the consensus is that this guy is a second round pick.
Small Forward: Wendell Moore Jr., Duke
I just outlined the numbers. There’s nothing else to say on that front. Moore is dribble-pass-shoot prospect with the tools to be a plus-defender in the NBA. Yes, he has odd bouts of tunnel vision and he can be inconsistent over multigame stretches. But he’s only 20, and the production across a variety of statistical categories is beyond impressive when you consider the level of competition he’s facing. I think Moore’s stock is getting killed by a few factors, the first of which is that he’s on a team with three potential one-and-done players in Paolo Banchero, AJ Griffin, and Trevor Keels. To top that off, there’s also Mark Williams, who broke out toward the end of last season as was hailed as the team’s top returner headed into the year. The second factor, and the bigger of the two, is anchoring bias. Wendell Moore came to Duke as a highly-touted recruit, slotted 25th in his class using RCSI. Moore stumbled out of the gate, scoring 7.4 PPG on 41.6/21.1/80.6 splits with an under water assist-to-turnover ration. As he went into his sophomore season, fans prepared for a leap that didn’t come. People moved on. Moore ended up making the leap as a Junior, and he’s still young for his class. Despite being two school grades ahead of Chet Holmgren, Moore is only about nine months older than him. It’s time to let go of the past and accept Wendell Moore for what he is: a first round caliber prospect.
Power Forward: Maxwell Lewis, Pepperdine
If you’re saying, “who on earth is this guy?” I wouldn’t blame you. I get it. But when I recently reconstructed my prospect rankings, I was shocked at how high Maxwell Lewis came out on my board, and I wouldn’t be stunned if he ends up turning pro should he tests the waters. Teams could easily come away impressed with him in a workout setting.
So, who is Maxwell Lewis? I’m glad I asked! Lewis was a four star recruit coming out of high school, per Rivals. If you’re wondering how a four star prospect ended up going to Pepperdine of all places, we must first discuss the disaster that was Chameleon BX. If you’re too lazy to read that full story, here’s a summary: a highly-regarded basketball trainer started a program for players as an alternative to college. It ended up being a total mess. The most notable player in the program was MarJon Beauchamp, who is currently playing for the G League Ignite. Because players received benefits such as housing as a part of their program, there were questions around their NCAA eligibility. That’s why Beauchamp attended a junior college before heading to the G League, and it’s why teams were slower to show interest in Lewis, as they were unsure if he would be cleared to play. He was cleared, and the results were great. Lewis posted 11 PPG on 42.2/36.3/80.4 splits, 3.2 RPG, and 1.1 APG to go along with 1.1 SPG and 1.1 BPG in only 19.5 MPG. Despite getting limited time on the floor and having to take a circuitous path, Maxwell Lewis’ star is shining bright.
What makes Lewis so tantalizing are his physical tools. He’s long, active, and coordinated. Lewis is unfathomably smooth with the ball for his 6’7” height. Defensively, he incites havoc, which is demonstrated by his 3.3 STL% and 2.8 BLK%. The biggest concern with Lewis is that he needs to reel himself in a bit at times. This shows up primarily in his horrific turnover numbers (2.2/game). Lewis is beyond capable as a basketball player, but his lack of recent experience in a traditional basketball environment due to his time with Chameleon BX is evident when he tries to do too much as a creator. He will also miss the remainder of this season due to a wrist injury, giving him even less time on the court.
I’m a little leery of the “pre-drafting” concept, mostly because it’s easy to armchair but difficult to pull off in reality. Are you really going to be able to convince a roomful of other basketball minds, along with an owner, to drop his money on a player who not only might not be ready out of the gate, but may never be ready at all? I think Lewis may convince somebody to do it, even though there will need to be a perfect confluence of circumstances. First off, he has to destroy his pre-draft process. Secondly, the team who likes him will also need to be in a rebuilding phase with multiple picks to burn in case he doesn’t pan out. It’s unlikely that this happens; I’d give it a 5% chance, but it wouldn’t totally shock me if he pulls it off. Lewis is a modern wing with size, athleticism, fluidity, ball skills, and switchable defensive tools. That type of player is valuable in the modern NBA.
Center: Oscar Tshiebwe, Kentucky
Oscar Tshiebwe came to West Virginia as a Top 30 player in his class. There were big expectations, and I even recall seeing a few analysts project him as a one-and-done prospect. Tshiebwe didn’t blow the doors off of anyone, but he was rock solid as a freshman, averaging nearly a double-double per game. Still, NBA front offices had concerns about his rim protection, size (6’9”), and foul rate (4.7/40 minutes). As a result, Tshiebwe came back to West Virginia for his second year, but this time around, things went worse. He slid in just about every statistical category, and after playing 10 games, Oscar Tshiebwe announced that he was leaving the program.
At this point, I completely wrote off Oscar Tshiebwe as an NBA prospect. He didn’t have the size, he didn’t have the defense, and his mid-season departure from West Virginia left a bitter taste in my mouth. It felt like there was a significant skill gap between him and draftable players, and it felt like he may not want to persevere when the going gets tough. The lesson here, and it’s an important one, is that I am a big dummy. Tshiebwe merely needed a change of scenery, and it is now evident that his worth ethic is off the charts. He came into this season as the most skilled rebounder in college basketball, beautifully carving out space and utilizing his length to clean the glass at an elite level (15.3 RPG). Offensively, he got back on track at the free throw line (60.7% to 69.1%), improved upon his passing arsenal, and added an elbow jumper to provide an extra bit of spacing. On defense, his footwork and quickness are much better, allowing him to move better for blocks, get into passing lanes for steals, and switch onto smaller players.
I still have my reservations about what Oscar Tshiebwe looks like in the NBA. His strength and quickness advantages will be diminished, and he’ll consistently have to battle much larger centers (something that has given him trouble this year). But the last time I bet against Oscar Tshiebwe, I looked like an idiot. He’s one of the greatest success stories in college hoops, and he rounds out The All-Underdog Team with authority.
There will be NO Expanding Big Board this week. Why would I do something so cruel? Because next week I will be giving you all an updated Top 100 with strengths and concerns for each player! It also may not be up by Tuesday, but your patience will be rewarded. I promise!
Still I want to note one big change: Chet Holmgren has taken the number two spot behind Jabari Smith.
Holmgren is going to provide a preposterous level of offensive versatility to whichever team selects him. You can play an extra guard or forward who struggles to shoot because of the spacing he’ll provide. You could run a Spain pick-and-roll with Holmgren as the low man, either pulling the big man away from the basket or forcing the defense to leave Holmgren open for three. His ability to orchestrate offense from the top of the key as a passer will lessen the burden on other initiators. There is so much that can be done with him, and with each game, I get more excited about the possibilities.
QUICK HITS:
-After getting a hold of more of his game tape, Gabriele Procida is flying up my draft board. The 6’6” wing who will turn 20 just before draft night is a tantalizing offensive prospect. Previously, I had concerns about his in-between game and handle, but liked him as a finisher and shooter. Now, Procida is doing a wonderful job in the gray areas of the game. On one play, he looked off a fake pass to create one of the most wide-open dunks I’ve seen in the half court this entire draft cycle. He’s figuring it out on that side of the ball. The one thing holding him back on both sides is that he still feels a bit like a “puppy with big paws” at points, not totally in control of his body. He’ll try to do too much on offense or get burned after reacting too severely at the point of attack. Though he’s raw in some regards, he has a ton of important skills already, and I’ll always take the guy who needs to tone it down over the guy who may not be able to turn it up.
-A deep-cut, multi-year prospect worth monitoring: Tulane’s Sion James. The 6’5” wing stuffs the stat sheet with 7.8 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 3.2 APG, and 1.6 SPG on 40.6/34.0/71.9 splits. James boasts great vision and a strong handle for a player his size, and he’s a smart, aggressive defender. His scoring needs to come along. His jumper looks solid, but if he doesn’t fill it up at a higher level in the AAC, it’s hard to imagine him turning heads.
-Malaki Branham has been lighting the world on fire for a while, and everyone is finally starting to notice. At 6’5” with a sturdy frame and shooting 44.1% from three, Branham’s recent run of three 20+ point games should have solidified his status as a one-and-done prospect. My favorite element of his game is his ability to play with pace; even when he can’t burn the defense off the pick-and-roll, he has a nice hostage dribble game and will play with his head up to find the open man if the shot isn’t there. He’s patient, smart, and knows his limitations.
-Real Madrid’s Ziga Samar is a prospect I want to fall in love with, but much like Deepti on “Love Is Blind,” I’m not willing to lay myself in the line of fire if the connection isn’t going to be there. Samar has to show me that he’s in this for the long haul, and he has to do it by adding a respectable pull up shooting game. The 6’5” Samar can do everything else. He’s a big point guard who takes excellent care of the ball (4.6 assists to 1.4 turnovers/game), provides feisty defense at the point of attack, gets into passing lanes off the ball, and freezes defenses with an unreal ability to hesitate, then explode. The off the dribble game is the missing piece; Samar has some bad misses, which are almost always left short. If he can correct that, though, he’d be an outstanding NBA role player.
-There are three multi-year Big Ten prospects I want to cover:
-Wisconsin freshman Chucky Hepburn doesn’t get to handle the ball as much as a 6’2” point guard might in a typical offense, given that he shares the floor with (too lazy to look it up) 18th year senior Brad Davison and star sophomore Johnny Davis. When he gets to operate in the pick-and-roll, however, it is a thing of beauty. He has a good handle that allows him to get where he wants and enough quickness to split the seams in certain situations. His three-point shot has come along in conference play, and I’m confident that his numbers inside the arc would look better with improved spacing. There’s a chance he takes off next season when he gets the reins to the offense.
-Michigan State’s A.J. Hoggard is built like a tank at 6’3”, 220 lbs. He’s more than just an imposing frame, though. He’s super technical defensively and gave Jaden Ivey fits due to his ability to get into the ball, whether it be mid-dribble or during a pull up shooting motion. He’s a top-notch point of attack defender, big time athlete, and high level distributor. The only missing piece is his scoring; he averages 6.8/game on 41.3/28.0/62.9 splits. While that seems subpar, it’s a big step up from last year’s 30.7/16.7/60.0 numbers. If Hoggard can build himself into a respectable shooter by the time he graduates, he’ll garner interest from front offices, because everything else is already there. It’s a big if, but Michigan State has proven itself to be a phenomenal developmental program.
-Illinois’ Coleman Hawkins had some big moments down the stretch against Ohio State after Kofi Cockburn got into foul trouble. Hawkins finished the game with 10 points, 2 rebounds, 4 assists, and 3 steals. The 6’10” sophomore is one of my top breakout candidates for next season. He’s an outstanding passer with excellent length and remarkable feel. When he gets a bigger role, people will take notice of his savvy. Hawkins currently holds a 2.8 STL% and 2.7 BLK%. The combination of his footwork and size allow him to guard up and down line-ups with ease. His three-point percentage is up to 27% on the year, and if he can get it around 33% next year with a bigger offensive workload, I think NBA teams will come calling.
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