BaumBoards Prospect Overview, 12/7/2021: Fringe Week! Unheralded Stars, Sleepers, Second Round Gems, and More!
I’ve long held the opinion that the most interesting part of the draft to discuss is the fringe. It’s more volatile and harder to pin down. If you look at last year’s draft, for example, there was a rough consensus around the top prospects: Cade Cunningham, Jalen Green, Evan Mobley, Jalen Suggs, and Scottie Barnes, in whichever order you preferred. Let’s say you ranked Evan Mobley above Jalen Green, or Scottie Barnes above Evan Mobley, but still had that same Top 5. That’s pretty normal! You may have liked one player more than another, but you probably considered all of them NBA players who would go on to have solid careers. It’s easy to point at a guy at the top of the class and say, “I think he’ll be good.” It’s much more difficult to point at a guy in the 30-50 range on most boards and say the same. For that reason, I’ve always found myself more drawn to the fringe. Save a few “here are some sleepers I like” columns here and there right before the draft, you don’t come across many mainstream conversation about these types of players; only us Real Sickos care about them. But Real Sickos have a home here. That’s why I sent out a tweet last week asking for your favorite prospects that you have yet to see projected inside the lottery. I picked at least one player from each tweet, and I also checked on a few extra returning players I hadn’t gotten to watch yet this season. To organize this list, I’ve provided a loose “draft grade” for each player at this point in the process. Folks, it’s Fringe Week! Let’s get into it!
MID-TO-LATE FIRST ROUND GRADE:
Terrence Shannon Jr., 6-5, Junior, Texas Tech, 3-And-D Wing
Coming into the season, I thought Terrence Shannon had a straightforward path to the first round. He’d proven to be an elite athlete who brought awesome defense to the point of attack. The big question was his outside shot. From his freshman to sophomore year, he’d gone from 25.7% to 35.7% from long range. Still, he’d only taken 3 per game during his second season. Additionally, Texas Tech’s offense created questions about his NBA fit, as rather than being used like a traditional wing, he was often running baseline to baseline in the dunker spot area. With a new regime in town, Shannon has started to answer the questions about him with confidence. He’s taking 6.3 triples per game and connecting on 44% of them. It’s not just that he’s taking more, it’s also how he’s taking them, adding in off the bounce shots and attempts as a transition trailer. His mechanics are smooth off the catch with a simple preparation into a pretty shot. Shannon’s work on drives has been better, too, as rather than just looking to finish, he’s shown the ability to make intermediate passing reads. Texas Tech is even letting him bring the ball up the floor now, which I don’t recall him doing outside of transition plays last season. At 6’5” with plus athleticism, Shannon can bring juice to a team as a shooter, penetrator, and defender, and his steady improvement across each season is encouraging.
LATE FIRST/EARLY SECOND ROUND GRADES:
Caleb Love, 6-4, Sophomore, North Carolina, Athletic Guard (Suggested by @LeveilleJeremy)
This ranking makes me so happy. Caleb Love had a brutal freshman season at North Carolina, finishing the year with 31.6/26.6/80.8 shooting splits after coming into the year as a projected one-and-done player. He’s bounced back with a vengeance. Love’s shooting splits are now 45.7/37.5/77.1. Additionally, he’s scoring 16.6 PPG, and his assist numbers are up while his turnovers have dropped. He seems to have adapted to the timing of the college game, and it’s evident in his passing. Gone are the picked-off passes, and in their place are impressive cross-court finds with zip that hit his teammates right on the money. There is a notable difference in his demeanor, and he looks like he’s having the time of his life on the floor rather than playing worried. He’s shooting better, he’s processing the game faster, and he still boasts the potent athletic burst and size that made him so intriguing coming out of high school. If he can keep up his shooting numbers and continue to make plays at this level, he’ll have a home in the NBA.
E.J. Liddell, 6-7, Junior, Ohio State, Stretch Four/Small Ball Big (Suggested by @TheBoxAndOne_)
E.J. Liddell returned to Ohio State facing a much different predicament than Caleb Love. While Love had the physical tools of an NBA player, he didn’t have the production. Liddell had the production and heaps of skill, but there were questions about his fit and athletic prowess. More of a bully than finesse player in the post, Liddell’s primary scoring method faced real questions about a translation to the NBA. While he began to hit the occasional three (33.8%), he was only taking 2.8/game, and evaluators weren’t sold on him as a true floor spacer. Lastly, at 6’7”, he doesn’t have the size to play the five full-time, and there were concerns over his footspeed covering NBA athletes. Liddell is similar to Caleb Love in that he has responded emphatically to the feedback he received. Though he still releases the ball on the way down sometimes, Liddell is hitting 40% from three on 3.6/game. I was impressed by his footwork in Ohio State’s game against Duke, as he slid with players like Paolo Banchero and kept up with their better athletes end-to-end. I’ve also yet to touch on one of my favorite things about Liddell, which is his craft as a passer. There were multiple times last season where he made some crafty high-speed deliveries to cutters while operating from the elbow or top of the key. He has a strong sense of the floor at all times and he can fire off quick, accurate passes when his teammates are open. Passing is a skill I put a lot of stock into, because when you’re going from college star to NBA role player, it’s something you need to be willing to do. Plus, you rarely see great NBA teams giving significant time to poor passers. If he can keep his footwork on defense where it is now, Liddell could make for a great stretch four/smallball five off the bench.
Julian Champagnie, 6-8, Junior, St. John’s, Shooter with Size (Suggest by @DraftsOrion)
Champagnie has always stuffed the box score with loads of production across the board. After an underwhelming performance at the NBA Draft Combine, he decided to head back to school for his junior season. The result? Even more production. Champagnie was a prolific three point shooter last season, but he’s increased his volume yet again while connecting on 40.7% of his attempts so far this year. He’s comfortable from NBA distance, his release is effortless, and he doesn’t need much time to get off a great looking shot. To top it off, Champagnie uses his tools to tabulate steals and blocks as a team defender, and he has fantastic rebounding fundamentals. What has held Champagnie back is his athleticism; it’s the same thing that sent him back to school. Has it improved? It’s hard to say. I don’t really see it at this point. When he has to defend against quicker players one-on-one, his feet can look like they’re stuck in mud. I don’t worry about him being unable to separate at the NBA level, because I think his offensive role will be simplified to catching, shooting, and sending home put-backs. There isn’t a way around his on-ball defense right now, though, and it’s easy to see him being a target on that end. If he keeps taking steps forward as a shooter and team defender, it may be enough to give him life, but I was disappointed he didn’t take that step forward while others who received similar feedback seem to have done so.
EARLY SECOND ROUND GRADES:
Hyunjung Lee, 6-7, Junior, Davidson, Prolific Scorer (Suggested by @ChipJNBA)
Hyunjung Lee had his supporters after a 50/40/90 season last year. This year, he’s facing increased attention with Kellan Grady out of the picture. Still, he’s maintained a wildly efficient 51/43.1/85.7 shooting split. Almost every Davidson game features a preposterous display of shot-making from Lee. He can hit off spot ups, off the dribble, flying off screens, with a hand in his face, or through contact. It doesn’t matter where he is or who is on him, if Lee’s shooting the ball, there’s a chance it’s going in. Lee does a great job as a pick-and-roll operator, too, making sure his man gets plastered by the screener. He’s unafraid of physicality, which is great considering how effective he is as a free throw shooter. The biggest thing about Lee that jumped out to me, though, was the physical transformation he’s gone through. He was always a respectable runner going north-south, but he was thin and a mess when forced to work laterally. Now, Lee is thicker and more athletic. It’s especially apparent in his rebounding statistics, but it meets the eye test. Lee is flying in to clean up on the glass now. He’s sturdier when players try to get through his chest, and he’s handling changes of direction better while guarding the ball, as you can see below.
You still wouldn’t want him locking down LeBron, but Lee works hard on that side. Despite clunky feet, he’s made himself respectable. An improvement area for Lee would be as a passing processor. When he gets the ball, sometimes he’ll sit on it for a bit too long and allow the defense to recover. He also doesn’t like to go right, and I fear that going left may not be as easy for him when better athletes are cognizant of that fact. Still, I’m high on Lee because of his shot variety and the belief that he’ll actually get easier looks in the NBA with less focus placed on him from night to night. I don’t buy him as a starter, but I could see him as a meaningful rotation player.
Jordan Hall, 6-6, Sophomore, St. Joseph’s, Playmaking Wing
The appeal of Hall is simple: he has the size of a forward, but the feel and passing prowess of a guard. Hall’s passing bag is honestly better this year than it was last year, too, showing more flashes out of the live dribble. He’s also been more attentive on defense. His length helps him get into rebounds, and he’s been more effective inside the arc this year as a scorer because he’s making better use of his gifts. Though he’s taking 6.4 3s per game, his percentage has dropped from 35.1% to 27.5% this year. The mechanics on the shot are rock solid, so I think it will tick back up. The reason I’m lower on Hall is his frame and timidity around contact. He’s skinny, and he shies away from physicality. Though his rebounding numbers are good, there is at least one play on the boards each game where you felt like he gave one up because he didn’t want to get hit. I’m also uncertain about his NBA role if he can’t be an average three point shooter. Will an NBA team want to hand the reigns of their offense over to a 6’8” rookie who isn’t a deep threat, and is also worse than you’d expect inside the three point line? It gets messy without the jumper, and he may have to figure out somewhere outside the association first. If the shot so much as levels out, I’ll likely bump him up a tier. I trust NBA strength and conditioning programs to take care of his size, but the mindset and jumper are question marks at this stage.
MID-SECOND ROUND GRADES:
Matthew Cleveland, 6-6, Freshman, Florida State, Transition Threat (Suggested by @TheBoxAndOne_)
Florida State is fast-approaching Villanova territory, where I don’t feel comfortable doubting their prospects after a stretch of NBA success stories. If you close your eyes and imagine a Florida State player, Matthew Cleveland is pretty close to what you’re likely picturing. He’s 6’6” with a buttery handle, a nasty grab-and-go transition game, great defensive footwork, and elite ball-swiping skills when helping on penetrators. His ability to tag the roll man and recover to his guy on the perimeter is top notch, and it’s an important micro-skill for NBA wings. When he drives in the half court, he’s displayed floater touch and solid pull up jump shot mechanics. So why is a freshman with these tools and good feel so low? If you closed your eyes and imagined a Florida State player earlier, you probably know why; there are real questions about his shooting. I’ve spent the last few days scouring the internet for his high school splits to no avail, so I can only go off what we have from this season: 52.9% from the free throw line and 9.1% from three. Poor free throw shooting is a giant pet peeve of mine because it makes it hard to play guys like that at the end of games, and his three point numbers will make it easy for defenses to ignore him. While he’s a good athlete, he doesn’t have that Tyrese Maxey/Sharife Cooper level burst that will still guarantee paint touches when he gets the ball. I have hope because of his pull up ability, and the shot doesn’t look broken, but the side-to-side misses and early returns make it hard to place him above this tier at the moment.
Taevion Kinsey, 6-5, Senior, Marshall, Explosive Scoring Guard (Suggested by @DraftPow)
Taevion Kinsey jumps off the screen as an athlete. He’s a ridiculous jumper with a full highlight reel of dunks and twisting lay-up finishes. His frame is pro-ready, and he can bully weaker players in the mid-range and around the basket. He’s a great rebounder for his position. Kinsey’s playmaking has drastically improved over the years. He’s a master of simplifying the pick-and-roll; he knows when to hit the roller, when to reject the screen, and he always make sure he runs his man into the pick setter’s body when he wants to use it. His driving ability gives him real gravity, and he’s developed a nice array of pocket passes to reward his big men with easy buckets when help defenders swarm him. His off-ball defense comes and goes, but that’s not uncommon for a high usage player. At the point of attack, though, he’s like glue. Still, there are some frustrating moments with Kinsey. His handle is still basic by primary initiator standards, and it gets away from him when he tries to force the issue. He’ll get flustered by traps. Occasionally, he’ll take horrible shots in the mid-range when the defender smothers him, and then complain to the referees that he was fouled, when really, he just took a bad shot. His first step is worse than you’d expect given his vertical pop. I was a huge fan of Kinsey coming into this season, but I’ve been let down by his jumper. Though the volume was low, he hit over 40% from three last year, and I was buying it. This year, the long ball has betrayed him, and he’s down to 15.8% through 8 games. The sample is small, but he may just never be a consistent threat from distance. If he can’t hit from deep, his offensive role becomes much murkier. His physical tools are hard to find elsewhere, but there’s a chance his offensive game doesn’t work at the NBA level.
Taran Armstrong, 6-5, Freshman, Cal Baptist, Passing Wizard (Suggested by @DraftFilmSchool)
If you like passing, Taran Armstrong is your guy. He’s tall with tremendous vision and the ability to sling the ball to his reads at warp speed. Armstrong makes quick decisions to keep the offense flowing. When he catches from a standstill, he has solid quickness, and he takes driving lanes when they are presented to him. He’ll use his length to fight on the glass. Defensively, he does a good job within a team concept, and he was able to slide with players like Marcus Carr in Cal Baptist’s game against Texas. The issue right now is that he isn’t a consistent shooting threat, and his game is predicated on operating with the ball. You have to be really good for an NBA team to run offense through you. As a result, Armstrong’s shooting ability is critical. He’s probably not going to burn defenders in isolation, so he’ll need screens. To get respect from defenders, he needs to hit shots. Otherwise, they’ll sag back, and he’ll have a hard time getting into the paint and opening up his playmaking skillset. His shot certainly isn’t ugly, but I’d like to see him establish a solid pull-up game before going pro, as it would make his life so much easier out of the gate.
Tyrese Hunter, 6-0, Freshman, Iowa State, Defensive Terror (Suggested by @DraftDeeper)
A subset of Draft Twitter is going to kill me for this one, and look, I get it. Iowa State’s turnaround has been unreal, and Tyrese Hunter has been at the forefront of it. Though he’s undersized, he does a phenomenal job of absorbing contact, even rising through it when he clashes against bigger bodies. He’s constantly inciting havoc in passing lanes, tabbing a comical 2.8 steals per game so far this season. To top it all off, he’s one of the younger players in his class, having just turned 18 in August. My concern with Hunter is his ability to score the ball at the NBA level. There have been impressive flashes of handiwork off the dribble, but it hasn’t been consistent. Right now, Hunter is 35.6% from the field and 23.5% from three. If he’s going to struggle with efficiency at the college level, it’s hard for me to buy into him as an effective initiator at the NBA level. Given his age, I’d love to see him come back for a sophomore season, but he’s still intriguing because of his defense, mentality, and athleticism.
LATE SECOND ROUND GRADE:
Ben Vander Plas, 6-8, Senior, Ohio, Stretch Four (Suggested by @ChipJNBA)
There’s a chance this grade goes up if he keeps hitting threes at the same clip (42.6%). What makes the percentage even more impressive is the range he hits them from and the difficulty of the shots, as he’s now converting from deep off of relocation with consistency. Vander Plas is a stretch four with some extra bonus skills, namely his passing and ability to disrupt passing lanes on the other side of the court. He’s a savvy player who reads the game well. If a teammate is open, he’ll fire the correct type of pass with the right speed on it. If an opposing player lobs a bad pass or attacks with a wide handle, he’ll grab the ball. Vander Plas will be held back by his age and lack of high-level athleticism, but he’s smart and he can shoot, so there’s always a chance.
Fedor Zugic, 6-6, Ulm, 18 Years Old, Wing Prospect (Suggested by @EDemirNBA)
Zugic is somewhat of a 3-and-D proposition. He’s a pest on the ball, and he’s a fluid mover on offense who is comfortable putting it on the floor. He’ll shoot the longball off relocation, and he’s shown gorgeous flashes as a tough shot maker. One of the more interesting things about him is that while his career stats and percentages seem pedestrian or below average, he’s faced an absurd level of competition up to this point. In 2019, Zugic became the youngest player to ever play in the EuroLeague. The confidence, defensive impact, and shooting upside he’s demonstrated at 18 against pros is eye-catching. There are still a few habits he needs to iron out; he can be too antsy on the ball and commit fouls, and he gets caught ball-watching. I’d like to see him polish up his game a bit more, but he’d be an ideal player to stash for an extra year or so if you’re a strong team with limited roster space.
TWO-WAY GRADES:
Orlando Robinson, 7-0, Junior, Fresno State, Stretch Big (Suggested by @StephenGHoops and @207Celtics)
I said in my pre-season returning players column that if you look at Orlando Robinson and really squint, you can see a tiny bit of Karl-Anthony Towns on offense. He’s comfortable facing up with a smooth jumper from deep, he can put it on the floor, and he’s an impressive passer for a player his size. Robinson has improved significantly on defense so far this season, protecting the rim more consistently and demonstrating a higher level of engagement. His general demeanor has been more positive, too, and he doesn’t seem to get frustrated as easily as he did in the past. Still, he can get carried away at times and get stripped on drives. He’s also thin, and as an older prospect, he’ll have less time to bulk up. Right now, players can knock him off his spot pretty easily, and I worry about the ripple effects the physicality of the NBA would have on almost every aspect of his game. The big thing for him is consistency. He’s had a tremendous start to the year, and I want to see him keep it up. If he does, he’ll move up.
Efe Abogidi, 6-10, Sophomore, Washington State, Potential Stretch Big w/ Switchability
I was high on Efe Abogidi headed into the season because if it all comes together, he’ll be a super valuable player. In theory, he could be a stretch big who can guard up or down the line-up. I had two big concerns with Abogidi before the year: his lack of high-level rim protection and poor feel for the game on offense. Abogidi has done a tremendous job on the rim protection front, which wasn’t a big surprise to me. Defensively, he’s always shown a solid understanding of what ball handlers would do, and he’s able to get into the correct position quickly. Now, his timing is even better, and it’s led to increased block numbers and fewer fouls. Unfortunately, his offensive feel hasn’t looked much better. It’s especially confounding given what a savvy defender he is. Through 8 games, Abogidi has 5 assists, but the eye test is even worse. He’ll force questionable putbacks or throw it up when he’s swarmed under the basket in the most frustrating ways imaginable. Abogidi is also taking less threes now, and he’s down to 20% from deep after going 27.3% last year. I’m getting everything I want on defense, but offensively, I can’t imagine an NBA coaching staff trusting him right now.
Mike Miles, 6-1, Sophomore, TCU, Scoring Point Guard (Suggested by @TheBoxAndOne_)
Miles is, in the words of Jim Ross, quicker than a hiccup. He is sudden with the ball, and his speed lends itself to his offense in a myriad of ways. Miles is a great off-ball cutter when played tight, he relocates in a blur after he throws post entries, and he can burn slower defenders. He’s not super comfortable at the rim, but he has a crafty floater package accentuated by his feathery touch to compensate. His shots off the dribble look effortless, he just hasn’t scored at an efficient rate this season. Defensively, his size will make him a target at the next level, and he can get caught falling asleep off the ball. The margin of error for shorter guards is razor thin, and he can’t be inattentive at the next level. Miles has also been plagued by turnovers, as he can be overambitious with the ball. I’d still feel comfortable with him on a two-way, because I like to bet on athletes, and I think the shot is better than the numbers indicate so far. Still, there are a lot of holes that need to be patched up.
EXHIBIT-10 GRADE:
Kaiden Rice, 6-7, Super Senior, Georgetown, Three Point Shooter (Suggested by @_baback)
Rice used his extra year of eligibility to transfer into Georgetown after spending four years at The Citadel. He’s a three point chucker who launched over 10/game last year, and is taking 9/game so far this season. He’s a career 34.8% shooter from distance, which is good, but below where most specialists fall. His shot variety is impressive, though, and he’s smooth going into his shot off the dribble. Shooters with size are bound to get looks. Unfortunately, Rice doesn’t do much with his length on defense. He’s blocked 6 total shots in his college career, and he’s can be a turnstile on the perimeter. I don’t see Rice as an NBA player, but it’s not out of the question.
The Expanding Big Board as of 12/7/2021:
1. Paolo Banchero
2. Jabari Smith Jr.
3. Chet Holmgren
4. Jaden Ivey
5. Jalen Duren
6. Jaden Hardy
7. Kendall Brown
The Board stays the same as last week. As of now, Jaden Ivey seems the most primed to climb up a spot. He’s drilling threes at a 40% clip, and he was a knockdown shooter from three during his prep career. If this is actually who he is from long range, I’m open to the idea of him climbing into the top tier of the draft. Chet Holmgren and Jabari Smith Jr. are the most vulnerable out of that group right now, but I wouldn’t consider dropping him out of that tier even if Ivey moves up. My worry with Holmgren is that I’m still having a harder time imagining him as the primary offensive hub on a great team, and that’s something I put a lot of stock into when evaluating players. I could still see him as an Anthony Davis on the Lakers type of offensive option (not play style, just a really strong 1B), and that is still an incredible player to be, but I don’t know that I love the idea of him carrying the load as much as the other top prospects at this point in the season. With Jabari, my concern is centered around his ability to play make for others consistently. I’ve been impressed by his passing flashes, but it’s hard to fully buy into him as an elite distributor. It’s become easier for me to envision Ivey being the engine of an elite offense, and that could bump him up to the two spot. Perhaps I’m being unfair to Holmgren and Smith, though, as they aren’t in a situation to be given the keys to the car the way Ivey has been. I’m keeping an eye on it!
QUICK HITS:
-I feel like I’m starting to “get” Khalifa Diop more than I was earlier in the draft cycle after checking back in on Gran Canaria. At 6’11”, his defensive feel for the game has continued to improve, and he has the agility to hard hedge and recover at a high level. He’s also displaying soft touch in the post and a nice turnaround move.
-It’s been nice to see Trayce Jackson-Davis utilizing his off-hand more consistently around the basket. I was never particularly interested in him as a prospect, but if he keeps putting up monster block numbers (5 vs. Marshall, 3 vs. Syracuse, 4 vs. Nebraska), I’ll have to change my tune.
-After a nice shooting stretch, Caleb Houstan has quietly inched up to 35% from three. There are still disappointing warts to his game, but things may be coming together.
-I finally got to check out a Colorado game this week, and Jabari Walker looks like a completely different guy. He hasn’t been hitting from distance, but he looks so much better athletically. His defensive stance is less upright, he’s getting off the floor with ease, and he’s more active at all times while fouling significantly less. You won’t confuse him for prime Dwight Howard as a leaper, but the guy who barely made a dunk in transition against Cal last year is a thing of the past. I’m excited to see him in conference play.
-I’ve got an early second round grade on Christian Braun. He has real gravity on the perimeter, and his handle combined with his passing acumen has always allowed him to do a respectable job when defenders chase him off the line. This season, though, he’s doing even better. His craft has taken a leap in all areas, and he’s done a much better job of finishing. Unlike many prospects, Braun’s swing skill headed into the year was going to be converting at the rim as opposed to from three. Last year, Braun was 47.7% at the rim in the half court and ranked in the 29th percentile of eligible players, per Synergy. This year, he’s 74.1% at the rim and in the 90th percentile. There is likely to be some regression, but the eye test confirms that there has been real improvement here. Add in his effective defense, and it’s hard to imagine NBA front offices not wanting him to go pro.
-J.D. Davison looked fantastic against a set of savvy and experienced guards during Alabama’s game against Gonzaga. The guard spots in this draft cycle are completely up for grabs after Jaden Ivey, but Davison might be my favorite out of the bunch right now. His athleticism makes him a high-end finisher, his crossover is devastating, and he’s made some outstanding passing reads at full speed. If the three can stay above water, he’ll be hard to pass up.
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