Prospect Conspectus, 11/30/2021: Feast Week Fallout! Paolo Banchero, Jabari Smith Jr., Chet Holmgren, Jalen Duren, Kendall Brown, and more!
Updated thoughts on the top prospects for the 2022 NBA Draft, Kendall Brown lands on The Expanding Big Board, and Quick Hits!
The start to this season of college basketball has been out of this world! We’ve been treated to a smorgasbord of high level games, the fans are back, and the extra year of eligibility policy combined with changes to Name, Image, and License legislation have led to a higher quality of play. Feast Week brought us multiple big games, and we had the chance to see several top prospects compete directly against one another. Let’s get into it by taking a look at my updated Expanding Big Board.
The Expanding Big Board as of 11/30/2021:
1. Paolo Banchero
2. Jabari Smith Jr.
3. Chet Holmgren
4. Jaden Ivey
5. Jalen Duren
6. Jaden Hardy
7. Kendall Brown
Paolo Banchero maintains his spot at the top after a tough test against Gonzaga, despite cramps keeping him sidelined for much of the second half. This is not the first time he’s dealt with cramps during a game this season, and I’m hoping Duke gets to the bottom of whatever is going on there. Still, Paolo looked magnificent. He came out confident and aggressive, but still poised. His face up game is nasty, and he displayed impressive perimeter shot making. Banchero’s pull up three in transition looked buttery, and I fully believe that it will be a real tool for him as time progresses. There aren’t a lot of 6’10” players who have that in their bag, and it’s what makes Paolo so special. I also loved the way he hustled back on defense; it’s a little thing, but it’s a tone-setter, and when your best player sets that type of standard, it’s great for your team. One area of improvement I’d like to see for him pertains to his awareness when he puts his back to the basket. Gonzaga would send a perimeter defender to double him, and he didn’t always do the best job of seeing that, let alone proactively respond to it. Reacting to double teams is a crucial skill for primary initiators, and if he hopes to be one, he’ll need to clean that up over time.
Jabari Smith Jr. had a brutal start against UConn, but he stays in the number two spot because of how he responded. Smith wasn’t hitting his shots and found himself in foul trouble, but he still managed to be a positive influence on the game by playing tough defense, grabbing rebounds, and getting to the free throw line at every turn. He loves the moment, and he doesn’t quit when things aren’t going his way. Similar to Moses Moody last year, Smith does a great job of getting to the charity stripe without having to gratuitously playing to the referees; he’s simply so lengthy that players get tangled up in him. Smith showed awesome body control when dealing with contact from UConn’s strong, athletic big men and forwards, which is encouraging for his rim finishing at the NBA level. His ability to convert at the rim makes his jab-step threat from the perimeter a daunting challenge for defenses. I’d like to see Smith work on two areas, both of which will determine whether he can be a primary initiator. The first is his handle. Smith falls victim to what I call “The Big Initiator Problem.” Having a big offensive initiator is awesome, but because of their height, it’s harder for them to keep their dribble low to the ground, making them a candidate for strips and poke-aways from opposing defenders. As a result, they need to be hyperaware and in control of their dribble at all times. Second, I’d like to see him continue to build on his passing. The best players are the ones who can get their own, but also punish defenses when they come to help against them. Smith has shown flashes on this front, but it’s not a consistent thing for him yet.
I’m moving Chet Holmgren up to the three spot. Though I defended his performance in the UCLA game (and I still will, because I don’t think it would have been wise for him to eat into Timme’s possessions when he was so hot), I still wanted him to really show out in a big game. Similar to Jabari Smith Jr.’s performance against UConn, Chet saw limited minutes in the first half against Duke due to foul trouble, but bounced back with a strong second half. Chet’s length allowed him to get into everything; even when Duke’s big bodies boxed him out, he was still grabbing rebounds, or at least tipping the ball out to make it a competitive situation. His length buys him a long leash on defense, too. Even when his footwork isn’t pristine or a faster player blows by him, he’s able to get himself back into the play because of his endless wingspan. When bigger players have tried to bully him down low, they’ve still struggled to finish against him, because even if you knock him off his spot, his hand will still force you to alter your touch. You have to dunk on him, or he’s going to be a thorn in your side. Floaters and layups that go in over him feel like minor miracles. It’s also impressive how fast he is off the floor for dunks and second chances. Still, the frame issues came into play at points. It’s easy to force him baseline from the corner, and he doesn’t have a path to bully players on offense. It’s hard for him to stay vertical against contact, and teams can get him in foul trouble as a result.
Jaden Ivey leapfrogs Jalen Duren on the back of Duren’s worst college performance to date in Memphis’s blowout loss to Iowa State. First off, TJ Otzelberger deserves a world of credit for how tough and engaged Iowa State’s defense played. Nothing came easy for Memphis, and they struggled mightily any time they tried to get the ball into the paint. And look, Jalen Duren can’t really control that. He can’t throw his own post entries, and Memphis doesn’t have a traditional lead playmaker who can orchestrate the offense at a high level. What frustrated me was that Duren didn’t seem engaged on the defensive end. He looked heavy laterally, and outside of a block in the first minute or two of the game, it felt like he wasn’t in tune. Duren also had five turnovers, and I fear that I misevaluated where his passing game and offensive processing levels are at this point. I still think he eventually turns into a positive distributor for his position at the NBA level, but he’s behind where I thought he was right now. I also find it worrisome that in his two games against major conference competition (Virginia Tech and Iowa State), he has gone 4-for-11 from the field and is averaging 4 points per game. I don’t believe that’s wholly indicative of his talent level, but it may be best to reset expectations a bit.
This week’s addition to The Expanding Big Board is Kendall Brown. I mentioned last week that he’s been my favorite player to watch this season. Let me point you to a few tweets for examples as to why:
You love to see it! Brown is both a play-maker and play-finisher at 6’8”. Let’s also check out a wild stat from @ChuckingDarts!
That’s remarkable! Also, subscribe to the Chucking Darts podcast if you haven’t already, it’s fantastic. Now, in the time since that tweet, his numbers have come back to earth a bit since then: the stl% is down to 3.6 and the assist% is at 16.9. Still, it gives you an idea as to what makes him so special, and the type of company he’s keeping. Brown’s length makes him a perpetual nuisance on defense, and the turnovers he generates turn into instant offense because of how potent he is in transition. In the half court, Brown’s biggest flaw is his outside shot. Though he’s shooting a very funny 66.7% from three, it’s on less than one attempt per game, and he’s only taking them when he’s either wide open or being dared by a defender. As a result, defenses don’t pay him a lot of respect on the outside. Still, Brown has found a way to turn that into a positive. He is one of the savviest and most electric cutters I’ve ever seen. Any time his man falls asleep on him because he’s watching the ball, Brown makes him pay. He’s also tremendous at getting back on offense and getting inside position on his man. So even if he’s not a threat to shoot, you have to run back, and you have to keep an eye on him at all times. Despite an iffy shot, his cutting, transition game, and defensive acumen are going to allow him to get time on the floor at the NBA level. The only other concern I have with him is positional, as I think ideally you want him at the four, but he’ll struggle against more physical big men out of the gate. As of 11/28/2021, Kendall Brown is 10th in the NCAA in Box Score Plus/Minus. He has a remarkably positive impact on both sides of the floor, he’s an intelligent player, and his athleticism leads me to believe that he has loads of potential to boot.
Quick Hits:
-I checked back in with Mega of the Adriatic League this week, and I was relieved to see that Nikola Jovic is looking much better than he was at the start of the year. His shots are starting to fall, which is great, but what’s even better is how he’s getting into his shots. When I’d previously covered him here, I’d expressed concerns about his ability to generate his own offense. Now, he’s playing more aggressively and using more moves to get to his looks. In a tremendous performance against Cedevita, Jovic nailed a nasty mid-range stepback that would be unblockable against any competition. He’s also starting to use his length more on the defensive end, nabbing a steal and two blocks. I had always bought his jumper (beautiful form, quick release), but his percentage has ticked up to 34.3% for the year, which should help his stock significantly.
-Johnny Davis had one of the best prospect performances of the season against Houston. I made a twitter thread on a few of his highlights here:
The bottom line is, he has delivered in every way you could ask for. Gone is his habit of spotting up for long twos when he could easily spot up for a three instead. He’s showing tremendous confidence from long range, going from 1.9 attempts per 40 minutes to 5.6, and he’s hitting them at 36.4%. Plus, all of the other good stuff is still there! He’s a hustle player, he sticks like glue at the point of attack, he rebounds like a madman, and he uses his powerful frame to convert through contact. It’s very early, but as of this moment, he looks like he could be a first rounder.
-I ranked Bennedict Mathurin as the top returning prospect in college basketball prior to the season. Though he’s been surpassed by Jaden Ivey, there have still been encouraging developments. His shooting hasn’t fully come into form yet, but we are seeing the other jumps we hoped for; he’s playmaking out of the pick and roll more, he’s rebounding better, and he’s been even better defense. Not only is he seeing the floor more consistently, but he’s also using fake passes on the go to get to his spot better. It feels like he’s slid down boards due to a slower shooting start and the “shiny new toy” effect boosting the stock of projected one-and-done types out of the gate, but Mathurin’s baby-steps have caught my eye. A 6’7” player who shoots threes, plays defense, and makes basic plays off the dribble is quite valuable, and he’ll only be 20 on draft night.
-Mathurin’s teammate Christian Koloko has had a blazing start to the season. The 7’1” big man is averaging 16.2 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 3.5 BPG, and 1.0 SPG. An under-the-radar element to his game? Free throw shooting. Koloko went from 35% as a freshman to 62.5% as a sophomore to 78.1% this season. Could he eventually stretch the floor? I’m open to the idea of it. The touch on his baby hook is as soft as a baby’s behind, and his vertical explosiveness makes him a potent lob threat and shot blocker. Unfortunately, his emergence does step on the toes of Azuolas Tubelis a bit. Don’t get me wrong, Tubelis has had a fantastic start to the season. I would just prefer to get a look at him as a center, as it’s likely his NBA position, and Koloko’s emergence will have him stuck at the 4 for the most part.
-One last Wildcat to look out for: Kerr Kriisa. He’s a tremendous decision maker with solid size for a point guard at 6’3”, boasts a respectable jumper, and gets into handles at every turn on defense. Similar to Azuolas Tubelis, there’s a real competitive fire to his game that makes him seem like he would be a blast to play with. He may be more of a 2023 guy if the 3 point percentage doesn’t tick up, but he’s worth monitoring.
-After his 20-and-10 performance against Duke, Julian Strawther is definitely In The Conversation. At 6’7”, he offers superb positional rebounding, the ability to make the correct basic pass, and long range shooting, at times off of relocation. He could stand to be more accurate on post entries, and he’s not much of a producer on defense as of yet, but the tools are there to improve those things. If he does that over the course of the season, look out.
-Adama Sanogo is A DUDE. He’s only 6’9”, but his potent leaps and strength allow him to clean the glass like a much taller player. Sanogo also has the feet of a ballerina on switches, making him one of the most versatile defensive centers in college hoops. He can’t be bullied on the low block, and he’s difficult to beat off the dribble from the perimeter.
-I appeared on the Draft Capital this week and discussed Keegan Murray, Kadary Richmond, Bryce McGowens, Jermaine Samuels Jr., and Malcolm Cazalon! You can watch the video version here, or listen on any major podcast app. Chris and Stephen do tremendous work over there, so make sure to subscribe! We went really deep on these players, who are currently all over the place on different draft boards.
-Keon Ellis continues to jump out to me as a star in his role. He’s currenting scoring 13.3 PPG on 55.6/46.7/90.5 shooting splits, accompanied by 1.7 SPG and .7 BPG. At 6’6” with ridiculous burst, Ellis is a high level athlete who also plays with smarts. On the play below, you can see his outstanding defensive technique when switched onto a big. Though Ellis isn’t bulky, he’s able to handle bigs on switches because he knows how to play them. He’s constantly touching the ball on defense. On offense, his shooting and cutting talents make him the perfect complimentary player off the ball. To truly click as a connector piece, though, he’ll have to build up his passing. His timing is poor, and he’ll throw it to where players were rather than where they will be, or lead them out too far. He’s also not precise with his pass placement on the go, which can lead to issues when his drives are stifled. At the end of the day, though, it’s hard to imagine a player so refined and so athletic going undrafted.
-It’s been great to see Mark Williams hit his stride after a slow start. He’s been everywhere on defense for Duke, and it’s hard to find a more effective low-maintenance finisher. The “blocks and dunks” archetype for centers isn’t as sexy as more unique player types have emerged, but those players can still be impactful, and I think Mark Williams will be at the next level.
-The sudden breakthrough of Wendell Moore warms my heart. There was play in the Gonzaga game where he was open on the perimeter, and he was literally jumping up and down calling for the ball before he received it and nailed a three. His confidence is night-and-day from last season, and no play better displayed that truth. He’s also reminiscent of Ochai Agbaji in a way, too, where he’s finally using his athletic tools in a more functional manner, as he’s attacking more often and getting to the free throw line more frequently as a result. If Moore’s production keeps up, he’ll be one of the most versatile wing players available in the draft. I don’t see him slipping past the first round in that scenario.
As always, thank you for reading! If you enjoyed this piece, please consider subscribing (it’s free!), following @BaumBoards on twitter (also free!), and spreading the word (you’re never going to believe this, but that’s free too)! If you REALLY enjoyed it, you can send me a few dollars on Venmo, @MaxwellBaumbach! My wife and I just had our first child, so financial incentives would be a great way to keep me motivated if you want more posts like this one!
Great work as always! Loving the way the board is shaking out! Much love for plugging the show brother