Prospect Conspectus, 11/23/2021: Patrick Baldwin Jr.'s Rough Night, Jaden Ivey's Leap, and More!
Patrick Baldwin, Jaden Ivey, Big Board Updates, and Quick Hits!
When Patrick Baldwin Jr. committed to Milwaukee, most of the NBA Draft realm understood that he would become a tricky player to evaluate. In choosing to commit to a mid-major program coached by his father as opposed to a traditional powerhouse, “PBJ” would be forced to carry a larger offensive load for a less talented squad. He will also play a weaker schedule, so when Milwaukee gets matched up against a bigger school, all of the eyes are on him. Evaluators aren’t as interested in what Baldwin can do against Detroit Mercy, IUPUI, or any of the other Horizon League schools; it’s his performances against stronger competition from which they will try to squeeze all of the juice. The only two power conference teams on their docket, at least until a potential tournament appearance, are Florida and Colorado. So when Milwaukee met Florida on 11/18/2021, what would normally be a skippable game for NBA organizations was instead attended by 39 professional scouts from 22 teams.
Baldwin’s performance was unsteady, and Milwaukee was completely overmatched in a 81-45 blowout loss. Let’s start with the positives, though. Baldwin displayed impressive vision and passing acumen while driving. When he got deep into the paint and the Gator’s defense collapsed on him, he was able to kick it to the open man instead of forcing bad looks or picking up his dribble. His positional instincts on defense allowed him two nab two steals and two blocks. On back-down plays, he displayed a tremendous understanding of where the defender was distributing their weight, and he leveraged that to burn them with craft manuevers and get to the basket.
Unfortunately, his counting numbers stat-line looked ugly: 6-for-15 from the field for 13 points with 3 rebounds and 1 assist. His defensive effort was inconsistent. At one point, he didn’t run back in transition and allowed an easy lay-up that could have been contested. He’d get lackadaisical with his foot work and allow his momentum to pull him out of the play after a ball handler threw a simple counter move at him. Baldwin didn’t see too interested in mixing it up on the glass against Florida’s bigger bodies. Most frustrating for me was his tendency to rely way too much on putting his back to the basket on offense, even when he was on the perimeter. It was worrying, as he either does not have a solid face up arsenal, or he’s not yet comfortable rolling it out against strong opposition. Putting his back to the basket that far out inhibits his vision as a passer, slows down the offense, and is unlikely to yield positive results. Baldwin also smoked one of his threes off the glass, and received an “air ball” chant after leaving a different jump shot short. It was a frustrating performance, and he wasn’t surrounded by teammates who could help alleviate the pressure in a meaningful way.
I made the mistake of searching “Patrick Baldwin” on twitter after I watched the game, and the man was being torn apart. People were calling him a bust, saying he lost money by going to school there, and labeling him a fraud. I couldn’t believe that people on social media would rush to judgment and overreact to a single game of basketball (I kid, I kid). Still, Patrick Baldwin’s experiences fleetingly reminded me of an experience of my own during college.
It was the first day of a class I took called, “Society and Literature.” I signed up for it because I love literature, and as The Joker once said, “̶I̶’̶m̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶J̶o̶k̶e̶r̶,̶ ̶B̶a̶b̶y̶!̶”̶ “We live in a society.” I went to a small school, but even for that school, this class was tiny; a whopping 12 people signed up for it. Still, I found myself seated next to this woman who was (respectfully) a total babe. She had all the traits that fit my “type,” and throughout the class, which was participation driven, she seemed smart and funny. Being a single man at the time, I spent the entire class trying to think of something clever or interesting to say to her, but I had NOTHING. At the end of the class, the professor passed around a sheet of paper with a seating chart on it, and asked us to write down our names where we sat. She explained that this wouldn’t be where we were assigned, but rather, it was simply for her to put names to faces. The attractive woman sitting next to me handed me the sheet, and I notice her last name, “Conrady.” I (foolishly) believed I had my opening.
Me: Your last name is Conrady? Like Conrad, but with a “y” on the end of it?
Her:…Yes…
Me: That’s weird!
She didn’t sit by me the next time we had class.
Obviously, this story is humiliating. So, you’re probably thinking, “hey dude, that’s one of the most embarrassing anecdotes I’ve ever read. Why the hell would you share that with an audience of strangers on the internet when it ended so poorly?” The answer to that question is, “I am an insecure man who would never share a story about me on the internet that ended poorly, and that story didn’t end poorly.” HUHWHAAAAAT?!
That’s right, folks. A month or so later, she sat by me again. She had mutual friends in the same improv troupe as me, and after seeing us perform, she thought I was funny. We talked more and more, we helped each other with assignments, and eventually we started dating. Then we got married. Last month, we had our first child together. It’s not how you start, it’s how you finish.
What I’m saying is, Patrick Baldwin Jr. just needs to ̶m̶a̶k̶e̶ ̶f̶r̶i̶e̶n̶d̶s̶ ̶w̶i̶t̶h̶ ̶p̶e̶o̶p̶l̶e̶ ̶i̶n̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶s̶a̶m̶e̶ ̶i̶m̶p̶r̶o̶v̶ ̶t̶r̶o̶u̶p̶e̶ ̶a̶s̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶s̶c̶o̶u̶t̶s̶ continue working on his craft. Yes, first impressions are important, and they stick. But a few things will remain unchanged: Baldwin is 6’9”, he has a reputation as a great shooter, he makes intelligent decisions, and he plays good defense when he’s engaged. Will one bad game negate all of that? Absolutely not. Are there flaws to his game at the moment? Absolutely. But his problems are reconcilable. The defensive and rebound issues are matters of effort and attention. If he hits outside shots the way he has throughout his life, he can get by with a relatively simple face-up game based on attacking closeouts, jab steps, and a few basic counters. His skill level and body are there, he just needs to tighten up a couple of screws. It also doesn’t help that his teammates can’t do more, but that is the situation he chose for himself. Patrick Baldwin Jr. isn’t done, and the very notion that he’s a fraud is preposterous. He had a few embarrassing moments, but it wasn’t all bad if you’re being intellectually honest about how the game unfolded. Baldwin just needs to step back and continue to improve. In the long run, all this game will likely do is identify areas where he can get better.
The Expanding Big Board as of 11/23/2021:
1. Paolo Banchero
2. Jabari Smith Jr.
3. Jalen Duren
4. Chet Holmgren
5. Jaden Ivey
6. Jaden Hardy
Let’s cover the movement here. First, Jabari Smith Jr. has overtaken Jalen Duren and Chet Holmgren. This is at no fault of Duren or Holmgren, it’s simply that the more I think about it from a basketball philosophy standpoint, I feel that Smith presents greater value at this point in time. He’s more suited to be an offensive hub, provides better spacing, can cover multiple positions, and is engaged defensively. I’ll almost always value a perimeter player over a big, and with the four-spot being such an important position in the modern NBA, I would take Smith over either (likely) one-position big option at this point in time.
Jaden Ivey is the newest addition to the board. I have been blown away by the start he’s had. If you’d asked me prior to the season how he could find himself in the top five, my answer would have been improved shooting. While his shooting has improved (not just from a percentage standpoint, either, he’s hitting threes off the bounce and off step-backs), it’s been Ivey’s monumental leap as a distributor that has won me over. Theoretically, Ivey always had the tools to become a better passer, but I expected this type of improvement to be something that took multiple seasons, not a single year. His passing reads are night and day better, but the scariest part is that he is making these deliveries at breakneck speed and in a variety of different ways. He’s slinging fastballs out of live dribbles to the corner in transition, crafting drop-off bounce passes to bigs for easy lay-ups, and mixing in no-look dimes that flummox opposing defenders. This isn’t “hey, he’s figured out how to competently run the pick and roll,” this is, “Ivey now has a deep arsenal of ways to beat you with his passes.”
Even if Ivey’s shooting stays where it is now, I’m still bullish on him. His passing is accentuated by his ability to get into the paint at will in the half court. Throughout last season, there would be moments where Ivey would display a Tyrese Maxey-esque catch-and-explode move on the perimeter. The issue was that he wasn’t consistent with his footwork on it, so he wouldn’t always get the best first step, and then he would encounter resistance from the defense. Now, Ivey is consistent in his technique, and between his size and speed, it’s next to impossible to keep him out of the lane. Generating paint touches is crucial for offenses, as it forces defenses to make rotations and opens up opportunities both on the perimeter and out of the dunker spot. Ivey is guaranteed to get you those touches.
Jaden Hardy falls in part due to Ivey’s rise, but also due to my concerns surrounding his ability to make plays for others. I’m still a big time believer in his shot-making ability, and he’s doing a better job of figuring out how to separate and score over his last few G League games. His handle could use some work, as it will get away from his body at times, and he’s not fully reading the game at the requisite speed yet. It certainly doesn’t help him that the Ignite are not nearly as talented as they were last year, especially in terms of their veteran players. There’s no reason to sell his stock in my opinion, as the steps forward with his scoring indicate that he is figuring things out.
Quick Hits:
-I’m trying not to get ahead myself with Kendall Brown, who has emerged as my favorite player to watch in college basketball. His passing vision and touch for a 6’8” player is preposterous, and it’s made even better by his strong first step and slippery movements with the ball. Brown’s leaping ability makes him just as likely to finish a lob pass as to throw one. He’s a nightmare in transition due to his combination of scoring and finishing talents. His length gives him real juice on the defensive end. My worry with him was the outside shot, as defenses tend to play way off him when he doesn’t have the ball. Against Stanford, however, he made them pay, going 2-for-3 from beyond the arc. The first three was a flat ball, but the second was textbook. I don’t anticipate his jumper being a sure thing yet, and it will be the biggest factor in determining where his draft range settles.
-Dyson Daniels has been impressive for the G-League Ignite, doing a little bit of everything. He had 10 assists to 1 turnover in their first win, and he’s sitting at 36.4% from three. Given his length, game processing on offense, and defensive attentiveness, if he can hang in that range as a shooter, he’ll be a lottery pick.
-I have been thoroughly enjoying Kennedy Chandler. The man is an acrobat when finishing, he’s displayed incredible shooting range off the catch and bounce, and he’s sudden with the ball. Chandler is a quick-thinker in transition who can find the look-ahead pass or hesitate against even numbers to freeze the defense before generating an open look. When penetrating in the half court, he has a great ability to make himself skinny (well, he’s already skinny, but he makes himself MORE skinny) to knife through the lane and get to his spot. One enticing pass he’s displayed: the “split the seams” bounce pass through two defenders when blitzed in the pick-and-roll, setting up the screener with a 4-on-3 advantage. There are a few issues, though. He’ll never be able to change his height, which makes him fodder for opposing players who get him on the low block. His thin frame makes it tough for him to handle the physicality of driving players when he’s on defense. When he’s on the go, his passes aren’t as accurate. Lastly, when he gets to the rim, he’ll sometimes over-anticipate contact, and he adjusts his touch too much, costing him easy buckets.
-Harrison Ingram grabbed my attention, too. He’s not as flashy as Kendall Brown, but he’s also a tremendous passer and ball handler for his size (6’8”). Ingram is more physically stout, however, and he competes effectively on the glass. His shooting seems legitimate, so he profiles as a stretch four who can make plays for others. I do have concerns about his defense. In an off-ball setting, he’s solid, as his understanding of the game allows him to get into the right place at the right time. On the ball, his feet are slow to react against the initial attack, and I can see quicker players making him a target.
-Caleb Houstan remains on the bubble of the Big Board, along with the previously mentioned Patrick Baldwin Jr. I’m loving his decision making as a passer, but the fact that his shooting percentages haven’t line up with his reputation and his iffy defensive footwork (especially on closeouts) is giving me pause.
-Though TyTy Washington Jr. sputtered out of the gate against Duke, he’s been tremendous since. His first step allows him to beat closeouts with ease, and it feels as if he’s caught up to the speed of higher level competition. Evaluating intangibles can come across as corny, but I love the fight in Washington. The Duke game could have killed his confidence, but he hasn’t missed a beat. When Ohio was hitting every shot imaginable and Kentucky was in danger of an upset loss, Washington was having the time of his life under pressure. I get the sense that he wants to compete, and that his competitiveness is contagious thanks to his fiery disposition. You can go to war with TyTy Washington Jr.
-Keegan Murray’s gaudy averages of 25.8 PPG, 9.5 RPG, and 2.8 BPG are less exciting when you look at Iowa’s strength of schedule. That said, his jumper mechanics look much cleaner, and that shouldn’t change when he faces better competition.
-Matthew Mayer’s quick rip-through into a drive from the perimeter is one of the deadliest moves in college hoops. His passing has been much better this year, too, both in terms of willingness and placement.
-Zach Edey is really doing it! He’s so much stronger this year. His legs are thicker, and he’s not getting the ball stripped away from him any more.
-I’m not fully into The Bryce McGowens Experience at this point. I have serious worries about his inability to separate, and the way he forces looks when he’s stuck gives me pause. Often times, his feet won’t be pointed toward the hoop on catch-and-shoot jumpers. I’m waiting to see a bigger sample size against tougher competition before feeling too strongly about him one way or another.
-A gaggle of potential shooting specialists stood out to me this week: Santiago Vescovi, LC Cryer, and Sasha Stefanovic. Santiago is probably the most skilled due to his attacking craft, but Stefanovic’s size, basic but smart passing package, and penchant for knocking down shots off JJ Redick-style actions is tantalizing.
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Great work my friend!