BaumBoards Prospect Overview, 2/8/2022: A New Number One on the Big Board, International Check-Ins, and More!
I’ve made some seismic changes to the Big Board this week! With that being the case, I thought I’d make it the focus of my column. As the famous plumber Mario once said, “HERE WE GO!”
The Expanding Big Board as of 2/8/2022:
1. Jabari Smith Jr. (Previously 2nd)
2. Paolo Banchero (Previously 1st)
Yup! I’m finally jumping on this train. That said, I still have the two of them in the same tier. I’ve loved Paolo’s improved passing game as the season has progressed, and I’m not writing him off for the top spot as of yet. Though it’s less aesthetically pleasing than Banchero’s, I’m becoming enamored with Jabari Smith Jr.’s offensive scoring package. His mid-range game has become potent, and he’s actually scoring more efficiently than Banchero on jumpers off the dribble on eerily similar volume (Smith: .91 Points Per Possession on 67 attempts, Banchero, .848 PPP on 66 attempts). Sure, Smith isn’t able to leverage his gravity the same way as a distributor, and his lack of wiggle makes breaking double teams more difficult, but he’s also one of the younger prospects in this class. Given his rapid improvement and far superior defensive acumen, it’s enough for me to view him as a better prospect within a vacuum.
3. Chet Holmgren
4. Jaden Ivey
No changes here. I have these two in a tier together, but Holmgren has a strong edge at this point in time. He’s been killing it recently, but Gonzaga doesn’t get a ton of media attention during their conference schedule. Ivey has remained a force, but his unwillingness to finish with his left has clearly shown up on scouting reports, as players are trying to force him in that direction more consistently.
5. AJ Griffin (Previously 7th)
6. Shaedon Sharpe (Previously 5th)
7. Johnny Davis (Previously 6th)
AJ Griffin’s scoring has been off the charts. We’ve also gotten to see him going downhill with the ball more often. Griffin has always been praised for his NBA-ready body, and now, he’s weaponizing it on a more consistent basis. Though his handle isn’t exceptional, it isn’t bad, either, and combined with his power, it allows him to get where he wants on the floor. He’s automatic off the catch, and he’s also a trustworthy player, which I think is one of the most undervalued traits when it comes to player evaluation. Griffin rarely turns it over or makes frustrating decision, and he doesn’t force bad looks. He’s not going to drive a coach nuts and cost himself minutes as a rookie; he’s content to play within himself.
Sharpe stays on the board until he doesn’t put his name in. I know the intel says he’s staying, but if I were him, I’d go pro, and I find it hard to believe that he won’t consider the option.
Johnny Davis falls as a result of Griffin’s rise.
8. Jaden Hardy
9. Bennedict Mathurin
10. TyTy Washington
Not much movement here. Jaden Hardy has been spectacular lately and could climb back up if he keeps producing this efficiently. I’ve consistently kept Hardy ranked in the top ten, as I love his shot-making. Additionally, I felt that critics were overlooking the subtle improvements he’d made as a driver, decision-maker, ballhandler, defender and separator.
Mathurin holds steady despite some recent woes. He’s 1-for-13 from 3 over the last three games, and Arizona has utilized a closing line-up with him on the bench in their last two games. I’m still a believer in his shooting, athleticism, and defense.
TyTy Washington is right on his heels, though. His scoring package off the dribble is outstanding, even if he doesn’t get all the way to the rim consistently. I also view him as a true point guard given his ability to read the floor and deliver multiple types of passes to different types of personnel.
11. Jalen Duren
12. Ochai Agbaji (Previously 13th)
13. Keegan Murray (Previously 12th)
Jalen Duren holds steady, as I didn’t have the inner strength to watch a Memphis game this past week.
I’m flipping Ochai Agbaji and Keegan Murray based on role-readiness; I think Agbaji has a clearer NBA role that he can hop right into immediately, though the margin between them is paper thin.
14. Jeremy Sochan (Previously unranked)
15. Patrick Baldwin Jr.
16. Kendall Brown (Previously 14th)
I’m really into Sochan. Every time I watch him, I come away more impressed. At 6’9”, he has awesome positional size, makes plays on defense, rebounds his tail off, hits jumpers at a solid clip (34.1% from 3 on 2.3/game), has demonstrated impressive scoring craft in the mid-range, and flashed ridiculous body control around the basket for finishes. Between his size, athleticism, and intellect, the floor is starting to feel very high. Sochan is no longer a “pre-draft” candidate; he’s a legitimate NBA prospect who plays an important position. My biggest concern: his free throw shooting. He’s shot a horrible 51% from the charity stripe on the year and was 52.5% throughout his international career. It’s consistently been a thorn in his side. I’m enough of a believer in his touch to think it could turn around, but if it doesn’t, he’s a liability at the end of games.
I haven’t gotten to dig into recent Patrick Baldwin Jr. tape as of this writing, but the numbers are very worrying, and he could take a dip shortly.
Kendall Brown just feels like a guy who is very situation dependent. If he’s in the right environment, I’d be all for him, but that’s the scary part about projecting players before they end up on a team. I like him with the ball, but his handle and shooting aren’t enough to justify an NBA team running offense through him consistently. I like him off the ball, but it’s tricky to make it as an NBA player who plays off the ball as a non-center who doesn’t shoot from the outside with much confidence.
17. Dyson Daniels (Previously 16th)
18. Nikola Jovic (Previously 17th)
19. Tari Eason (Previously 18th)
Nothing to add on these gentlemen this week, who are all bumped back by the rise of Sochan.
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QUICK HITS:
-I checked back in on Hugo Besson and Ousmane Dieng this week when the Breakers played against the JackJumpers. Man, the NBL has awesome team names. Anyway, I came out lower on Besson and a tad more optimistic about Dieng. Defense has never been Besson’s strong suit, but it doesn’t help that he doesn’t feel engaged on that side of the floor, either. He also makes some dangerous passes that feel pre-determined, rather than coming as a result of an ambitious read. Dieng looked visibly more comfortable on the floor and is able to make decisions quickly. He’s still raw as a scorer, but it was nice to see him out there playing with confidence and poise.
-The Texas vs. Texas Tech game this last week is why I love college basketball. The fans were losing their minds! On the Texas Tech tip, it’s worth reminding you all that Kevin McCullar is, in fact, a DUDE. He’s powerfully built at 6’6”, can guard up or down line-ups thanks to his strength and beautiful footwork, and he’s an outstanding decision maker with the ball. His shooting splits of 37.9/32.8/71.6 don’t do him any favors, as he has to take on a very high-usage role that he would never have in the NBA. On catch-and-shoot plays, he actually ranks in the 77th percentile in college hoops, per Synergy. When he can act as more of a connector and defender, he’ll shine.
-I loved the play above from Hyunjung Lee. He’s one of the most polished scorers in this draft cycle.
-I also caught VCU senior Vince Williams Jr. in that game. Williams has been stuffing the stat sheet: 12.9 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 3.4 APG, 1.7 SPG, 1.2 BPG, and 45.2/38.7/79.3 shooting splits. Williams has really grown into a leading role this season. He has a solid lefty shooting stroke, a respectable first step, and good passing vision on the go. His size and footwork allow him to recover well on defense and make him an interesting pick-and-pop option on offense. Athletically, he didn’t blow me away, and that combined with his age puts a ceiling on him. Still, he can do a lot of things well and plays a smart game.
-I checked in on two international big men: Ismael Kamagate and Khalifa Diop. I’ve had Kamagate ranked as my number three center in this class behind Holmgren and Duren, and I still feel comfortable there. He’s an exceptional mover for his size, and his activity level on offense is off the charts. On top of that, he’s looking more comfortable taking jumpers, and I trust him to put it on the floor when need be. His biggest areas of improvement are pick-and-roll defense consistency (that’s true for most of the bigs in this class, and young bigs in general) and his back to the basket game on offense. Though I like his touch, I haven’t seen much from him in the way of post moves, and he doesn’t have the lower body strength to bully pros on the block yet. Diop is a tough evaluation for me. He seems almost uncoordinated at times with how he’ll run past a player or get faked out of position, but he’s still exceptionally fast for his size. He’s been more controlled on defense, and his passing instincts have come along throughout the season. Diop has also done a slightly better job of laying in his screens, but he still slips far too often and isn’t fully comfortable with contact due to his skinnier frame.
-I haven’t heard his name much lately, but I’d still draft Azuolas Tubelis. His movement on defense has improved significantly this season. He’s quick into passing lanes with a STL% of 2.0 and he’s blocking one shot per game despite having to play the four. Tubelis is an awesome passer, too, racking up 2.6 assists per game. He’s smart, and I think a lot of his issues (inconsistent outside shooting, he’s prone to getting stripped as a driver) are minimalized at the five. Unfortunately, he’s playing next to Christian Koloko, so we don’t get to see him there much, but I’m still interested.
Love the shine given to Diop and Williams Jr.!