Scouting is a lot like trying to find your car keys.
In recent weeks, I had found myself feeling stuck. I watched the same prospects over and over again. Burnout crept in, and I would find myself finishing games with only a single new observation about a player, or no new observations at all. The idea of watching another Duke, Kentucky, or LSU game felt nauseating. Last week, I focused almost entirely on my Expanding Big Board, as those were, for the most part, the only players I had watched. I didn’t feel like my heart was in it. Sure, the piece did great numbers. Substack tells you to shoot for a 40% “open rate” on e-mails to your subscribers. Last week’s column did a preposterous 64%, one of the highest figures I’ve seen here. But still, I felt the love of the game slipping through my fingers.
So what did I do? I treated the scouting process like losing my car keys. I stepped away for a bit to get a fresh set of eyes. How did I do that? By barely paying any attention to those players, and instead, digging deep into the mud. I checked in on “blind spot” prospects that I’ve seen little of, looked at players with interesting statistical profiles, and cleansed my pallet. The end result? I was reminded of how much I love basketball. Let’s start with the chief culprit of this romantic rekindling, Xavier Bledson.
Xavier Bledson is cool. He’s 6’6”, a super heads-up player, a livewire in transition, and one of the most dynamic passers in Division I hoops. He’ll hit open teammates in transition, out of his dribble, from the post…anywhere. He’s ridiculously exciting. The stats are interesting, too: 10.1 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 4.1 APG, 1.2 SPG, and shooting splits of 43.9/34.1/87.7. His size and playmaking ability are a tantalizing pairing, and his outstanding free throw shooting gives optimism about future growth behind the three-point line.
It’s not all sunshine and roses, though. Bledson is a redshirt sophomore, so he doesn’t have as much time to round out his game as other prospects. Additionally, he’s posting these numbers on an 11-14 Indiana State team that plays in the Missouri Valley Conference. Typically, mid-major players need to be far more dominant than this in order to catch the eyes of NBA evaluators.
But this week? I didn’t care. Xavier Bledson made me love watching basketball. I had the time of my life as he slung the ball all over the court. Is he going to play in the NBA? Probably not. That doesn’t make him any less entertaining, though, and I still feel that his game warrants appreciation and acknowledgement. That’s ultimately why we are all here; we love the game of basketball, and we want to see athletes who can do mesmerizing things that capture our imagination.
I stumbled across Bledson while checking in on Missouri State’s Isiaih Mosley, who has become one of the most prolific scorers in the sport. Mosley is averaging 20.5 PPG on 50.5/42.6/92.6 shooting splits, which is absurd. It’s even more impressive when you watch the games and see how much attention he receives from opposing defenses. His Synergy numbers speak further to his efficiency, as he ranks in the 89th percentile as a pick-and-roll ballhandler, 91st percentile in isolation, and 92nd percentile on post-ups. Mosley has an old-school wing post game that you don’t see too often these days, but he’s not overly reliant on it, either. He’s also in the 91st percentile on catch and shoot opportunities, so he’s not a guy that needs the ball in his hands in order to be effective. Mosley can flat out score, and at 6’5”, he’s displaying a level of mid-major dominance that will unquestionably turn heads.
I caught up on some Fedor Zugic film. The 18 year old playing for Ulm has already faced a ton of high-level competition, and is canning 36% of his threes across various pro leagues this year. He’s a real tough shot maker, has solid end-to-end speed, boasts reliable elevation, and he displays good balance on closeouts. One thing that stuck out to me though is the length of his arms. At 6’6”, his arms appear short, and I worry about his lack of length given his already substandard defensive production metrics.
JD Notae has at least a shot at getting on a Summer League roster, right? The redshirt senior is a menace at the point of attack. Sure, he’s only 6’1”, and he’s 30.8% from three this year, but his career percentage from long range is a more palatable 33.8%, and it’s hard to find high-major prospects averaging 2.5 steals per game. His shot out of the dribble is wildly inconsistent; sometimes it’s silky, other times it’s a moonball. If he could get a grasp on that, he’d improve his range of outcomes.
Iverson Molinar impresses me more every time I see him. He’s grown so comfortable with the ball in his hands and he has a track record of hitting off the catch over his three years in college. He’s a trustworthy lead guard who does a good job of staying in front of his man defensively, so I could see him being a rock solid back-up PG at the NBA level.
DaRon Holmes II excited Dayton fans when he announced his commitment. His signing was a big deal for the program given his 38th overall RSCI ranking in his high school class. At 6’10”, Holmes is fast for a center. He gets up and down the floor well, and can even lead the break a little bit. He’s light on his feet, giving him upside as a switchable center, but his footwork isn’t totally polished yet, and he can get faked out of position. He’s also skinny and will need to add size. However, his athleticism, shot blocking (2.5/game), defensive upside, and ability to orchestrate offense in the short-roll and hand-offs make him a real prospect. I’d prefer he go back to school to build his frame and round out his skillset, but he’s still one to watch.
I still have no idea what to do with Bryce McGowens. He’s so good at getting to the basket and getting fouled. His mid-range game is gorgeous. Still, he’s been a big disappointment from three. His two alley-oop plays against Minnesota did the rounds on twitter, but what didn’t go viral was the way he let his man beat him off the dribble before one of them. It was one of the most low-effort plays I’ve seen this cycle, and the monster jam was the fruits of his cherry-picking.
I finally devoted more attention to Terquavion Smith during a NC State game. The 6’4” guard LOVES to launch threes, taking nearly 8/game, and he hits them at a 35.6% clip. If you go under a screen or give him space, he’ll make you pay. Unfortunately, he can get a bit erratic with his shot selection at times, and his footwork/handle isn’t exceptional. As a result, he’ll take contested looks after failing to separate that feel doomed to miss. Still, as we’ve seen from Cam Thomas, simply getting buckets can translate in the right environment. Smith is also far more engaged than Thomas was on the defensive end, though he’s not nearly as prolific of a scorer from all three levels.
Matteo Spagnolo continues to be of interest to me. The 19 year old Vanoli Cremona prospect is a Real Hooper, with as polished of a one-dribble pull-up and two-dribble pull-up as you’ll see in this draft cycle. The 6’4” guard has flashes of excellent passing, but he can get too ambitious with his passing attempts at times. Though he’s taking threes at a 2.5/game clip and hitting 45% of them, I worry about him sticking in the NBA due to his defensive woes. He’s easily faked, can get caught ball-watching, and is slow to react at the point of attack. Given the nature of his shot diet (pull-up heavy, little rim pressure) and lack of positional size as a two, he needs to get better at generating meaningful rim pressure, passing, and defending. Otherwise, his shooting will have to be truly elite for him to make it as a rotation player.
I’m starting to come around on David Roddy. This is cruel, but in my initial round of notes on him, I wrote, “We have Julian Champagnie at home.” I believe I sold him short in a bad, unfair way. Roddy owns a truly polished face-up game. His jumper looks legitimate, he has a functional handle and strength, and he can really whip the ball on the go. He dominates smaller players in the post and can unload a wicked spin move at the drop of a hat to get an easy look at the rim. Sure, David Roddy is weird. He’s listed at 6’6” (questionable) and 255 pounds. He’s stocky and small, allowing big men like Orlando Robinson to finish over him with ease. But he’s immensely skilled, and I feel that modern NBA coaching staffs are more creative than ever before, giving me hope that a team could find an awesome use for an unconventional player like David Roddy.
I don’t think I’ve seen Fabian White Jr.’s name anywhere this cycle, but are we sure he’s not at least an Exhibit-10 guy? He’s a 6’8” fluid athlete who stuffs the stat sheet, posting 12 PPG, 6 RPG, 1.3 APG, 1.1 SPG, and 1.3 BPG on 49.1/41.9/67.8 splits for an awesome Houston squad. Yes, he’s a redshirt senior. Sure, the free throw percentage and fact that he’d only taken 8 total threes prior to this season may be indicators of an outlier three-point percentage. But the shot passes my eye test, and NBA teams are constantly on the lookout for players with size who can play a complimentary role, shoot, and defend. White checks all of those boxes.
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The Expanding Big Board as of 2/15/2022:
1. Jabari Smith Jr.
2. Paolo Banchero
3. Chet Holmgren
4. Jaden Ivey
5. AJ Griffin
6. Shaedon Sharpe
7. Jonathan Davis
8. Bennedict Mathurin (Previously 9th)
9. Jaden Hardy (Previously 8th)
10. TyTy Washington
11. Jalen Duren
12. Ochai Agbaji
13. Keegan Murray
14. Jeremy Sochan
15. Patrick Baldwin Jr.
16. Kendall Brown
17. Dyson Daniels
18. Nikola Jovic
19. Tari Eason
20. Ismael Kamagate (Previously unranked)
There was no movement at the top of the board, but I am making a tier change. Given the recent explosion from Chet Holmgren and Jaden Ivey’s continued on-ball progress, I am now considering them in the same tier as Jabari Smith Jr. and Paolo Banchero. I put up a poll regarding Ivey and Banchero as on-ball and off-ball prospects, and Ivey won out. I also trust Ivey more as a defender right now due to his physical tools. But when I looked at the numbers, Banchero is actually doing a tremendous job off the catch; I think him as a number two or three option is a cleaner fit than many are considering.
I was starting to have some concerns about Bennedict Mathurin after his recent shooting slump saw him removed from Arizona’s closing line-up, but he bounced back with a vengeance this week and overtakes Jaden Hardy. The margin there is thin; I think Mathurin is safer, but Hardy has a higher ceiling, as he showcased in his most recent G League games where he scored impressively with great efficiency.
I want to give a special mention to Jalen Duren, who has looked tremendous during Memphis’ most recent turnaround. When the ball moves, he looks like a million bucks. Unfortunately, he has little control over that. Duren also swished a beautiful baseline jumper against Houston from deep in the mid-range, flashing a potential expansion of his range.
Patrick Baldwin Jr. is back in action, and the results are…frustrating. His teammates are nowhere near his level, and it makes evaluating him exceedingly difficult. There will be plays where it looks like guys don’t even know where they’re supposed to go on the court. Baldwin will still produce flashes, particularly as a secondary playmaker, but he’ll also display tunnel vision at times, and he’s 9-for-34 from the field since returning. Again, the situation is brutal, but if he doesn’t turn up his production, I’m not sure I can continue to justify keeping him in this range.
Kendall Brown’s numbers still aren’t always consistent, but he’s gotten more assertive with his jumper recently, which is a positive development.
I checked in on Nikola Jovic, and I still like what I see, even though his shooting has gone cold as of late. He’s unquestionably become more confident and comfortable. Jovic is driving to the basket more, embracing contact, dancing with the ball, and throwing more live-dribble passes. If he can pair his increased poise with the shooting numbers he was putting up a few weeks ago, he’ll rise into the lottery.
Ismael Kamagate is the latest addition to the board! I am typically a “don’t take centers super high unless they’re really special” kind of guy. Kamagate goes here for two reasons: 1. I’m not wild about this draft class after this point. I have a lot of questions about the prospects beyond this spot, and don’t feel great about picking someone to gamble on yet. Kamagate is a relatively safe proposition. 2. I’m not sure that Kamagate isn’t special. He’s a 6’11”, 21 year old big man who has put up rock solid numbers in a tough French league. The first things that stands out about Kamagate are his mobility and activity; he’s a quick, fluid mover with a high motor. He loves to screen, relishes the opportunity to switch onto smaller players, patrols the paint, and controls the boards. Offensively, he’s primarily a play-finisher at this point, but he’s grown as a passer, has shown an ability to put it on the floor, and is starting to feel more comfortable as a jump shooter. His 71% free throw percentage and clean stroke give reason to believe that he could be an eventual floor spacer. Defensively, he can lose his man helping or struggle with certain pick-and-roll plays, but in general, he’s really good on that side. He gets off the floor well for blocks and can get into the occasional passing lane for a steal, too. His physical tools also allow him to get into place quickly to prevent easy baskets. I’d like to see him continue expand his range and polish his back-to-the-basket game; I think the defensive improvements are more an inevitability as he gains more experience. Beyond Holmgren and Duren, he’s my favorite big man in this class. There’s offensive upside to untap and I know he can hold his own as a professional on defense. I don’t think he’d get embarrassed on an NBA floor if you threw him out there tomorrow.
Glad to see you’re coming around on Kamagate:)