BaumBoards Prospect Overview, 2/1/2022: I Lost 156 Pounds. Therefore, I Believe in Trevion Williams
Weight loss, athleticism, and sickening gains.
I believe that passing is massively undervalued when evaluating center prospects. In the modern NBA, big men are consistently forced to act as facilitators within the offense, and not just out of the post. The rise of pick-and-roll and handoff based schemes has given bigs more responsibility as decision makers. If the point guard is blitzed during a pick-and-roll, he’ll dump the ball to the big, who must now orchestrate the 4-on-3 offensive opportunity. If a wing cuts baseline while the defense is pre-occupied with a big man handing the ball off to the point guard in a weave-style set, it’s the big’s job to thread the needle and find the cutter. The “Stretch Big” has become in vogue as the NBA has evolved into a more perimeter-oriented league, but more quietly, the passing big has done the same. There are your obvious glitzy names like Nikola Jokic, Draymond Green, and Domantas Sabonis, but younger players like Alperen Sengun and Evan Mobley fit this mold, too.
If you’re strictly talking about passing, there is no greater big man talent in this class than Trevion Williams. The man is a WIZARD with the ball.
Williams exists at the four-way intersection of skill, timing, vision, and creativity. He has the ability to deliver the ball to his teammate, exactly where they will be, before the defense can see it, and he’ll do it in an unpredictable manner. There are levels to passing, and Trevion Williams isn’t just good at it; he’s special. He’s averaging a point guard-like 6.0 assists per 40 minutes. Even though he’s a mere 30% career three-point shooter who has only taken 23 shots from long range over his four year college career, you have to play him tight in an effort to take away his passing game. You need to stifle his vision, or he’ll punish you. His passing also opens up his gorgeous post game.
So why isn’t Trevion Williams higher on draft boards? There are two primary reasons, but they dovetail together: his lack of vertical athleticism, and his poor rim protection skills. But here’s the thing; I think Trevion Williams can fix both of these problems. Why is that? Let me tell you a little story.
The date was January 30th, 2016. In the weeks leading up to that date, I’d known I needed to change my life. I’d been making half-hearted attempts at it, but I was going to take a big step to hold myself accountable; I was going to buy a scale.
Let’s go back even further. In grade school, I was the chubby kid. I got picked on a lot for it. I was always one of the taller kids in school, though, and by the time I grew to 6’3” in 8th grade, things evened out a little bit. I was still heavier, but it wasn’t a real problem in my day-to-day life. In high school, I stopped growing at 6’5", and my weight fluctuated in the 250-270 range. That may sound heavy, but I was involved in basketball and track, and was lifting weights multiple times per week. I definitely had some pudge, but the underlying muscle definition kept me from looking like too much of a mess. When I got to college, I gained the freshman fifteen (and then some) as I’d completely stopped working out. As a sophomore, I got active again (running, pick-up basketball, occasional lifting) and started to monitor my eating. It paid off, and I got into great shape. At my lowest during that stretch, I was about 240 and could dunk a basketball on the right day.
After college, things got ugly. I’ll keep it brief: I had an awful time adjusting to the real world and was met with several events/situations that absolutely hammered my confidence. My self-worth was completely diminished, and after a four year stretch during college where I was more successful than I had ever been, I found myself failing in several areas. Things had been coming easy to me, and now, I couldn’t get anything right. After about a year, things started to fall into place, but I’d done some real damage to myself. Namely, I’d formed a horrible relationship with food. Feel sad? Eat to feel better. Feel happy? Eat to celebrate. Food was a constant crutch. Anxious? How about some food to relieve the stress?
My weight skyrocketed. I had a hard time finding clothes that fit me. I couldn’t find jeans in stores any more. If I needed to tie my shoes, I would come up red in the face. I was constantly stressing out about food; if I went out to eat, would I get a big enough portion? What if I’m in a social setting and I can’t eat until I’m full, because if I do, I’ll look like a monster? I’d randomly wake up with aches in my neck and back. I had to change. I wanted to be a better husband, and I wanted to be a father some day, and when I was, I wanted to be able to actively engage with my child. I wanted to be able to buy jeans at the store. I wanted to tie my shoes like it was no big deal. I needed to hold myself accountable, and a scale was the way to do it.
When I went to buy the scale, I almost broke down. I realized I needed to buy a more expensive one that went up to 400 pounds, in case I’d cracked the 350 mark. When I got home, I weighed myself, and I was 350 on the dot. Over the next three years, I slowly chipped away. The first year, I just worked on eating better. The second year, I incorporated exercise. The third year, I ate in symmetry with my exercise to achieve better results in the gym. Eventually, I got all the way down to 194. Since then, I’ve purposefully bulked and cut a few times. Currently, I’m at about 229 and working my way back down to around 215ish.
Large Past Maxwell after weighing himself on 1/30/2016 vs. Current Maxwell on 1/29/2022.
Trevion Williams is also a weight loss guy. After a foot injury sidelined him in high school, he showed up to Purdue weighing 320 pounds. During his freshman season, he dropped 40 pounds. Every season, he’s come in a bit leaner, and he’s currently listed at 255.
So is Trevion Williams a bit slower footed than some of his peers? Yes. Does he get off the floor as well? Maybe not, but he’s already starting to get off the floor better. Take a look at this clip here:
Here’s the kicker, though; there is a ton of untapped athletic development to be had here. Sickening gains are ahead! Why is that? Well, let’s talk science. In order to lose weight, you need to be in a caloric deficit. Your body has what is called a Total Daily Energy Expenditure (TDEE), which is how many calories your body will burn in a day. There are calculators online you can use to estimate yours, but they’re not perfect; there are a lot of factors at play. Your TDEE is based on age, height, activity level, and weight. However, folks with thyroid conditions, for example, will typically have a lower TDEE than a standard estimate would project, which is why it can be more difficult for them to lose weight. So, in order to lose weight, you need to be in a caloric deficit; this means you will eat less calories than your TDEE in a given day. There are 3500 calories in a pound. So if your TDEE is 2500 calories, and you want to lose one pound in a week, you would eat 2000 calories a day. That way, you’re burning 500 excess calories per day, over seven days, equaling 3500 calories, or one pound.
Got it? Good. Now, here’s the issue if you’re an athlete; if you want to gain muscle, it’s tricky to do it when you’re in a caloric deficit. Your body is losing energy on a daily basis. Have you ever gone on a diet and felt tired or sluggish? This is why! You’re purposefully decreasing your energy levels. The caloric deficit makes it tougher to develop muscles and gain strength because your body is short on fuel. You may be faster or able to jump higher because you are physically lighter, but your muscles aren’t getting fully fed, so they’re not truly getting that much stronger. When you’re done losing weight, it becomes much easier. You’re not losing energy week over week; you’re even. This allows for steadier physical development. If you want to increase muscle mass, you can even bulk, where you intentionally exceed your TDEE each day and try to use the extra energy to enhance your physical development.
This is very exciting when you’re projecting things out for Trevion Williams. He’s had to be below his TDEE for so long that there are massive athletic improvements right around the turn. Personally, when I didn’t have to lose weight any longer, I saw a massive increase in my lifts and faster times on my runs. Earlier, I mentioned that in college, I could dunk on the right day. Five years ago, I could barely do bodyweight squats. Now, at 31, I can dunk multiple times every single day; it’s automatic. Now that he’s past the point of losing weight, Trevion Williams can make bigger athletic improvements that had been off the table. I mentioned his two problem areas earlier: his lack of vertical athleticism, and poor rim protection skills. His vertical athleticism will continue to improve, and based on personal experience, I think it will happen pretty quickly. As far as his rim protection skills, I think that will come, too. He processes the game well and gets steals, it’s just a matter of him continuing to adapt to his new body, growing confident as a contester, and improving his timing.
The skill is there; the concerns are almost entirely about his body. But I’ve been in a similar pair of shoes. In the aftermath of my weight loss, my athletic capabilities exploded. Therefore, I believe in Trevion Williams.
THE EXPANDING BIG BOARD AS OF 2/1/2022:
1. Paolo Banchero
2. Jabari Smith Jr.
3. Chet Holmgren
4. Jaden Ivey
5. Shaedon Sharpe
6. Johnny Davis
7. AJ Griffin
8. Jaden Hardy
9. Benedict Mathurin
10. TyTy Washington
11. Jalen Duren
12. Keegan Murray
13. Ochai Agbaji (Previously 17th)
14. Kendall Brown (Previously 13th)
15. Patrick Baldwin Jr. (Previously 14th)
16. Dyson Daniels (Previously 15th)
17. Nikola Jovic (Previously 16th)
18. Tari Eason (Previously Unranked)
The big riser this week is Ochai Agbaji. As he’s continued to produce at such a high level, it’s hard to look past his NBA fit as a shooter, athlete, and defender. Theoreticall, his upside isn’t all that high, but given the improvements he made over the last year, I’m not sure that he’s a “he is what he is” prospect, either. He’s felt both increasingly safe and meaningful to winning basketball as the season has progressed.
It’s been nice to see Kendall Brown get back on the horse a bit these last few games, but he’s still a gamble given his inconsistent defensive production and unclear offensive fit out of the gate.
Tari Eason is the latest addition to the board. The 6’8” sophomore from LSU came out of nowhere to emerge as one of the best players in college basketball this season. Eason has established his reputation as a havoc-wreaking, chaos-inciting defender, but I feel that description doesn’t do him justice. He has awesome footwork on the ball, and isn’t a stat-chaser so much as an ultra-high-motor worker with great physical tools and instincts. Eason rotates well to help, knows how to “help dig” into an attacker’s dribble without losing his man, and owns a polished set of fundamentals. Offensively, he can be a bit tricky to project. He’s forced to take on a large creation load for LSU due to their lack of passers, which is not going to be his role in the NBA. Though his handle can be wide at times, he can fall victim to tunnel vision, and some of his passing decisions a bit frustrating, I feel that those issues are exacerbated by how much he’s forced to do for them. In comparison to other players his size, I feel great about his handle and passing. Eason is ridiculously powerful, allowing him to bully his way to advantageous spots on the floor and finish through contact. His outside shot is a question mark for now; he’s shooting 30.2% from three on 2.2/game, and he’s a 78.5% free throw shooter. Both of these numbers are a giant step up from there he was as a freshman for Cincinnati, but he’ll occasionally brick a jumper or throw up a shot that misses directionally in a way that is concerning. Even if he’s a below average NBA shooter, though, I don’t think it’s curtains for him. He does so many other things well, and there are plenty of starting power forwards around the league who don’t stroke it from deep at a 36% clip.
QUICK HITS:
-Jaime Jaquez had a great “sales pitch” performance in UCLA’s win over Arizona, scoring 10 points, grabbing 5 rebounds, blocking 3 shots, and stealing the ball twice. While he may not be vertically explosive, Jaquez has exceptional lateral footwork. He evades screens, slid with whoever was in front of him, and prevented counter attacks from going anywhere. What he lacks in burst he more than makes up for in savvy and timing.
-A name to keep an eye on down the line: Boise State’s Tyson Degenhart. The 6’7” freshman is a smart “fill the gaps” player who has produced well: 9.3 PPG in 25.8 MPG on 50.7/40.7/77.6 shooting splits, a 1.8 STL %, and a 3.4 BLK %. He’s a true winning player, and Boise State hasn’t lost since he entered the starting line-up. I wanted to put him after Jaquez in this piece because of their similarities; Degenhart can attack a closeout, has an arsenal of counter moves, sets good screens, and clearly knows the scouting report. He’s also strong, which makes up for his lack of height when competing for rebounds. I’m excited to see what the future holds for him, though he’s likely a multi-year college player.
-Boise State’s redshirt senior Emmanuel Akot is also INTERESTING! He’s a 6’8” point guard with a strong body who is draining 41.1% of his threes this year. Sure, he’s older, but size, production, and feel are a recipe for success, especially if he can continue to build his jumper.
-I checked into Baylor Scheierman out of South Dakota State after being enamored with his statistical profile: 15.2 PPG, 8.5 RPG, 4.1 APG, 1.5 SPG, and shooting splits of 50.7/49.1/81.5. Scheierman has no problem making tough shots with a hand in his face or converting triples from NBA distance. His passing game is solid, as he can both move it quickly when needed or put it on the floor and sling the ball out of a live dribble. He does a good job of reading poor passes and intercepting them. Scheierman isn’t a great athlete or most fluid mover, but he’s dominating Summit League competition. He’ll probably need to head back for his senior season, and I certainly wouldn’t mind if he transferred to a bigger school to face a higher level of competition on a more consistent basis. His numbers against bigger schools weren’t stellar: 3-for-12 for 10 points against Alabama, 5-for-15 for 14 points against Washington, and 4-for-10 for 11 points against Washington State.
-It was great to see Mike Miles put up a big performance against LSU’s fantastic defense on Saturday. Miles’ numbers aren’t appealing at all on paper, especially when you factor in his listed height of 6’1”. But if you watch TCU, the poor guy is getting absolutely smothered by opposing defenses. Teams know that he is the engine of the offense, and no one else on his squad can hold a candle to him. As a result, teams throw their best defenders at him, along with frequent traps and double teams. He’s the biggest, “You have to watch the games” player in this class. Against LSU, Miles managed to get a lot of 1-on-1 opportunities, and he seized them, scoring 19 points on 6-for-14 shooting with 8 rebounds, 6 assists, and only 1 turnover. Miles is a blur with the ball, and his shot-making flashes are exciting. This was his best performance of the season, and a great game to watch if you haven’t seen him recently.
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