BaumBoards Prospect Overview, 1/4/2022: An Apology to Walker Kessler, Shaking Up My Lottery Projections, and More
Sometimes, you gotta post your L’s.
Last week, I posted my current Top 100 Big Board. I didn’t include Walker Kessler on that list. The day before I posted my board, the good Stephen Gillaspie (@StephenGHoops, co-host of the excellent Draft Capital podcast) asked me if I had Walker Kessler on there. I told him no, I didn’t. That night, Walker Kessler posted a triple double against LSU, going for 16 points, 10 rebounds, and 11 blocks. The next day, my article, which had already been completed, went live.
In college, one of my professors said that in life, there is a sh*t sandwich, and every once in a while, it’s time to take a bite.
Folks, I’ve got my bib on, and I’m ready to chow down.
I want to examine WHY I was wrong about Walker Kessler. Because even if you remove the LSU performance, which is the context in which I ranked everyone, he still should have been on the board. I believe my swing-and-miss comes down to anchoring bias. This a cognitive bias where you cling to the first piece of information you received about a subject. The piece of information: Walker Kessler is a stretch big man. Throughout his college career, I’ve consistently looked at Kessler as a disappointment because I didn’t see him as a floor spacer on offense. He’s a career 19% three-point shooter and 55.1% free throw shooter! Earlier this season, I compared his release speed to the sloth in Zootopia. There are people who still swear he’s going to figure out his shot, and I still don’t buy it. If you look at him through the lens of being an offensive stretch big man, then he’s a colossal disappointment. But that ignores everything that Walker Kessler can do really well right now.
Kessler is a mammoth 7’1” with long arms, and he’s still a relatively fluid mover for his size. His sheer size makes him a massive deterrent around the basket, but he’s skilled, too. Last season at North Carolina, he posted monstrous per-40-minute blocks and steals numbers. Despite playing significantly more this season, Kessler’s steal rate numbers are only a hair behind last year’s figures, and his blocks-per-40 are actually up to a hysterical 7.3. On top of this, he’s fouling less frequently. His attentiveness is phenomenal; he knows where his man and the ball handler are at all times, and his size allows him to cover the distance between them well in drop coverage. When does get beat, he doesn’t quit and works hard to recover. He put on some quality size this off-season, so he’s no longer being knocked off his spot, and post players can’t bully their way through his chest anymore. His added bulk is making a difference with his finishing on offense, too. Despite the extra weight, he still moves as well as he did last year.
I was right; Walker Kessler isn’t a stretch big man. But because I was so hyper-focused on his classification, I ended up being completely wrong about him as a player.
I had a back-and-forth with someone who said Walker Kessler is a first round player, and I still can’t get there. Part of that is preference; if I’m taking a big man in the first round, I’d like them to check one of the following boxes: be able to play in multiple defensive schemes, stretch the floor as a shooter, or offer above-average passing for the position. Right now, I see Kessler as a player who could have a nice career as a drop coverage big man, but personally, I don’t tend to rank players like that in the Top 30. Given the weakness of this draft class, I won’t completely write him off, though. After all, I’ve been wrong about Walker Kessler before.
The Expanding Big Board as of 1/4/2022:
1. Paolo Banchero
2. Jabari Smith Jr.
3. Chet Holmgren
4. Jaden Ivey
5. Jalen Duren
6. Jaden Hardy
7. Kendall Brown
8. Bennedict Mathurin (previously 10th)
9. Patrick Baldwin Jr.
10. TyTy Washington (previously 11th)
11. JD Davison (previously 8th)
12. AJ Griffin
13. Dyson Daniels
14. Jonathan Davis
Alright, let’s start with JD Davison, who is this week’s big faller. I want to be crystal clear on one thing: I still think he has franchise changing upside. Unfortunately, his last three performances have put into perspective how far away that ceiling might be. His inability to shoot off the dribble is going to allow defenders to sit back on him, sapping the meaning out of his athleticism in the half court. As a passer, there are games where he plays like he has eyes in the back of his head and make tough reads at breakneck speed. Unfortunately, he’ll also have games where he looks like an out-of-his-depths player being told to do their worst Russell Westbrook imitation. In his eight turnover outing against Tennessee, he tried to force several passes when defenders were clearly in his path. These weren’t high-end defensive plays; they were painful-to-watch mistakes that we shouldn’t be seeing from a guard with lottery hopes. To make matter worse, Davison consistently falls asleep off the ball on defense. His rebounding numbers are impressive for a guard, and while he’s awesome at put-backs on offense, many of his defensive boards come from the fact that he’s just sort of wandering around near the basket instead of making rotations or covering his man. I still love the ceiling with JD Davison, but it’s becoming clear that he does indeed present a gamble, and the floor could get ugly if he can’t gain the trust of an NBA coaching staff.
Bennedict Mathurin is the man who makes the biggest jump. I wish I had a more exciting reason, but he’s just been very good at basketball and very consistent.
I’m keeping Kendall Brown in place, but I’m more open to dropping him a bit, as his defensive numbers have started to fall off a bit the last few weeks. I’m unbothered by him putting up four points against Iowa State, but the fact that he gave up several easy buckets by letting players cut backdoor on him or slip behind him in transition is a big red flag.
Brown is a sharp player, an elite cutter, a phenomenal athlete, and a plus passer for his size. But right now, his scoring ability is limited outside of ten feet. When that’s the case, you need everything else to be there, especially effort, if you’re going to be in the lottery conversation. Still, the tools are in place, and he’s an excellent rim-finisher.
Patrick Baldwin Jr. stays in place, as he hasn’t played since 12/13. TyTy Washington jumps on the back of Davison’s slide, but he’s still a player I enjoy and hold in high regard. His decision making and first step combined with off-ball shooting ability make him a true combo guard, and it’s easy to imagine him fitting in with all sorts of backcourt configurations at the next level.
QUICK HITS:
-A fun sleeper to keep an eye on: Overtime Elite’s Dominick Barlow. He’s draft eligible in 2022. Barlow has a super high motor and he’s constantly running the floor hard. At 6’9”, he’s an explosive leaper and play finisher. I don’t love his jumper from what I’ve seen, but his size, motor, and athleticism make him worth monitoring. I’ve found OTE games to be exceedingly difficult to evaluate, but every time I watch Barlow, it’s clear he’s a cut above from a physical standpoint, and he doesn’t use that as an excuse to take it easy in terms of effort.
-As Stephen A Smith once said, “TAke a look, y'all:”
Player A, Age 20 season in pro league: 22.7 MPG, 8.8 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 0.4 APG, 1.8 BPG, 0.7 SPG, 71.8% FG, 70% FT, 0% 3FG, 1.5 TO, 2.2 FOULS
Player B, Age 20 season in same league: 26.1 MPG, 11.4 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 0.4 APG, 1.7 BPG, 0.6 SPG, 68.2% FG, 70% FT, 0% 3FG, 1.5 TO, 1.5 FOULS
Player A is Rudy Gobert. Player B is Ismael Kamagate. Outside of Duren, Kamagate is my favorite center prospect in this draft cycle. He plays with a poise and maturity that is rare for players his age, his footwork is excellent, he rebounds, he gets blocks, and he’s mobile enough that he can hold his own when switched onto smaller players. He’s good at basketball right now with athleticism to spare, so it’s not like he’s a low ceiling proposition, either.
-Tevin Brown of Murray State is growing on me. The 6’5” senior is 44.2% from 3 on 8/game, and they aren’t simple looks, either. He can hit off of movements and step-backs. Brown actually does a great job with his handle and footwork, constantly keeping defenders on their toes as he dances with the ball. His mechanics are unwavering in the face of closeouts, which I love to see. He can playmake defensively, too, and averages almost a block per game. Brown can be overaggressive on both ends and gamble too much, and as a senior, he’ll have less time that other prospects to add size to his thin frame. But as an athlete and a shooter, he looks the part of an NBA player.
-St. Joe’s vs. Richmond was set to be an exciting prospect battle between Jordan Hall and Tyler Burton, but devolved into a blowout win for St. Joe’s and a ref show, with multiple technical fouls called as tempers flared. Hall was the better prospect on the night, and he showed some improvements that put a big smile on my face. Namely, Hall was willing to mix it up physically. It was the first game I’ve seen where he didn’t noticeably avoid contact at any point. My favorite thing he did was back-down smaller players when Richmond tried to put them on him, which set up great looks for his teammates. Hall’s willingness to engage makes him an actual mismatch proposition and opens up his beautiful facilitation game. Lastly, Hall was locked in on defense, and did a good job of sticking with Burton, a bursty cutting threat. Burton had an alright performance. His passing is looking better, but St. Joe’s exposed his handle, as if he’s not going in a straight line, Burton doesn’t have much in his bag. He doesn’t have a counter game, and the ball can get away from his body when penetrating.
-Jeremy Sochan was outstanding in Baylor’s win over Iowa State. He was perfect from the floor, going 4-for-4 from the field, 1-for-1 from three, and 3-4 from the free throw line. But the biggest thing that stuck out were his 3 blocks and 2 steals. The steals in particular ripped the heart out of the Iowa State crowd. Sochan’s defensive presence is persistent, and at a moment’s notice, he can suck the life out of the other team. It must be genuinely dispiriting to play against him. His three-point numbers have gone up to 36.4% on 2.5/game, and he displayed impressive touch on a smothered baseline jumper. The only thing holding me back on him is his 54.5 FT%. Poor free throw shooting is a giant pet peeve of mine, as it can make the player a target at the end of games. Hopefully he can turn things around at the charity stripe. His jumper touch is great, so I’m optimistic.
-Ochai Agbaji is the “roast beef sandwich and kettle chips” of draft prospects. When you ask someone what their absolute favorite meal on earth is, no one is going to say, “it’s a roast beef sandwich and kettle chips.” But have you had a roast beef sandwich and kettle chips recently? It’s a fantastic meal. It may not be your first choice, or even one of your first ten choices, but it gets the job done. As evaluators, we can be so focused on the tippy top of the spectrum that we begin to lose an appreciation for the satisfactory. Agbaji’s shooting and athleticism are legitimate, and the NBA team that ends up with him we’ll be satisfied with the end result.
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