BaumBoards Prospect Overview, 1/25/2022: Shaedon Sharpe Has Arrived (Maybe)
Just when it seemed as if the discussion around the top of the 2022 NBA Draft was getting stale, Shaedon Sharpe changed everything…maybe.
News broke on Friday that the highly-touted prospect, who was previously projected for the 2023 NBA Draft, will actually be eligible for the 2022 NBA Draft. Well, again…maybe. Per the latest reporting from Chad Ford, his eligibility for the draft is still “murky.” It appears as if his status will be tied to the timing of when his high school course work was completed. And even if he is eligible, there is still talk that he may return to Kentucky, where he is currently enrolled but not playing. But if I’m Shaedon Sharpe, and I’m eligible, I’m absolutely throwing my hat into the ring in 2022.
The top of this year’s draft class falls off pretty quickly. Prior to this week, I had Johnny Davis ranked fifth on my board. I love Johnny Davis, but I don’t see him as a potential franchise-changing player, more as a high-end complimentary piece if things break right for him. He hustles, he plays good defense, and he’s strong, but he struggles as a finisher due to his lack of vertical pop, and he’s yet to prove himself as a consistent outside shooter. For that reason, if I’m looking for an upside swing, the Shaedon Sharpe Mystery Box is a lot more appealing. The Shaedon Sharpe Mystery Box could be anything! He might even be as good as Johnny Davis!
But in all sincerity, Shaedon Sharpe is the type of player I’d feel more than comfortable gambling on. In fact, I’d sleep better risking my reputation on him and taking him than if I let him slip past me and I had to worry about what he could become for a different organization. At 6’6”, Shaedon Sharpe is an absolute sky-walker; the man levitates when he explodes for dunks. His first step is potent, and if he can get respect on the perimeter, I like his chances to be a threat to pressure the rim. As far as getting respect on the perimeter, he’s off to a good start so far in his career. He hit 46% of his threes in EYBL play this past summer, and hit 45% of his attempts during his last high school season, per SI. What’s most impressive is how he gets into some of these looks- Sharpe has dazzled with step-backs and hesitation dribbles to freeze defenders before pulling up into jumpers. His offensive footwork isn’t totally polished, and can even look clunky at times. That’s okay! He’s a teenager who is expanding his game and trying new things. I’d rather see that than a player with so much potential testing himself than playing it safe. Defensively, he has all the tools. His arms are long, he recognizes lazy passes, and his bounce gives him potential as a help-side rim protector.
If Sharpe goes pro, though, there are going to be a lot of answers we won’t get. We don’t know what his driving game looks like against bigger, stronger athletes. We haven’t gotten to see him operate as a pick-and-roll ballhandler against tougher competition. He hasn’t been forced to make higher level passing reads when he can’t get his own shot. We don’t know how the speed of the game will impact his decision making. That’s a lot of stuff to be worried about!
Still, given the nature of this class and the lack of high-upside prospects, I’d be stunned if a team in the top ten doesn’t take a swing. And if you’re Sharpe, and you know you’re going to go top ten…why return to school? I’ve yet to see a report of player receiving NIL money that would be greater than that of an NBA rookie salary for a top ten pick. The risk of going to school and floundering outweighs the risk of struggling in the NBA. If Sharpe is eligible, I think he should go for it. And if I’m an NBA team picking fifth or later in this draft, I’m the taking the athletic wing who has hit 40+% from three and is showing upside as a shot creator, even if I don’t get to see him in college.
THE EXPANDING BIG BOARD AS OF 1/25/2022
1. Paolo Banchero
2. Jabari Smith Jr.
3. Chet Holmgren
4. Jaden Ivey
5. Shaedon Sharpe
6. Johnny Davis
7. AJ Griffin
8. Jaden Hardy
9. Benedict Mathurin
10. TyTy Washington
11. Jalen Duren
12. Keegan Murray
13. Kendall Brown
14. Patrick Baldwin Jr.
15. Dyson Daniels
16. Nikola Jovic
17. Ochai Agbaji
Shaedon Sharpe slides into the five spot, pushing nearly everyone else back a spot.
Paolo Banchero has continued to make strides as a playmaker. For some time now, I have toyed with the idea of moving Jabari Smith into the top spot, but Banchero’s recent revelations have made me pump the breaks. Throughout his prep career, Banchero’s ability to draw attention and then punish defenses with passes was tantalizing. Now, we’re seeing him do it at the college level. It’s important to remember that his ability to play organized basketball was greatly impacted by the pandemic. He didn’t get the same runway as a player like Jabari Smith (who continued to play consistently), but now he’s making up for lost time.
I continue to push AJ Griffin up the board, but his quiet play in the NC State and Florida State games gave me pause. He bounced back with authority against Syracuse, though. Griffin has been automatic from three all season, and even if I’m lower on his athletic potential than others, that combined with his size and re-expanding shot-making arsenal is tantalizing. Griffin leap frogs Jaden Hardy, Bennedict Mathurin, and TyTy Washington.
Can we please get Jalen Duren some help?!
QUICK HITS:
-Memphis is a disaster, man.
-Blake Wesley had some late struggles in Notre Dame’s game against Howard that I found to be rather revealing about where he is at as a prospect right now. He had a few late turnovers, losing the ball and forcing brutal passes. He even got pulled from the game in the final two minutes. That’s still okay! Wesley was a relatively out-of-nowhere success story. A few bad plays don’t change his advanced scoring arsenal or take away the impressive passing reads he can make. He needs refinement, but that shouldn’t be a surprise; he’s a freshman. I don’t think he’s a “step in and contribute” player next year, but he’s still worth a look in the 11-25 range depending on the team. If you can be patient with him, he’ll be an awesome addition.
-For a hot minute, Belmont’s Will Richard was one of the buzziest mid-major prospects out there. A recent 0-for-12 cold streak from three has a put a damper on his momentum, but I’m still intrigued, even if he doesn’t come out until next year (or later). The 6’5” freshman has the perfect skillset for a complimentary NBA wing. Richard is still 35% from three on the year with a gorgeous stroke and quick trigger release, he moves the ball well, and is a good athlete. Richard gets off the floor quickly for blocks and rebounds, and he runs hard in transition.
-I wanted to be out on John Butler. The idea of man that skinny being an NBA player was laughable to me. That has changed. He’s grown more confident in his outside shot, and the more I’ve watched of him, the more I’m blown away by his defensive technique when guarding on the perimeter. At 7’1” and (too lazy to look it up, wagering a guess) 130 pounds (I kid, I kid), he is absolutely a project. He looks significantly thinner than Chet Holmgren and he doesn’t have the same mentality around the basket. Still, a stretch big man who can provide switchability on defense with his size is next to impossible to find. A team early in a rebuild or with a strong development program should take a long, hard look at Butler.
-This week’s “is there anything here?” prospect with an interesting statistical profile: Justin Bean! The Utah State senior is averaging 18.8 PPG, 10.1 RPG, 2.2 APG, and 1.7 SPG with 57.7/50.0/80.8 shooting splits. MAMMA MIA! The eye test gets a little dicey, unfortunately. Against Fresno State, better athletes managed to keep him almost completely off the glass. He’s not a great leaper, and players met him at the rim with ease. His feet aren’t at a level where I like him on the perimeter in the NBA, either. His 50% from three comes on a meager 2.3/game, and his career mark is just a hair below 34%. If I can’t trust the shot or athleticism, positionally, I don’t know what to do with him. I’m passing on Bean for now.
-Caleb Houstan is coming on strong! The 6’8” Michigan forward has hit 10 of his last 18 attempts from three, and could easily work his way back into the mid-first round conversation if he keeps it up.
-Michael Foster Jr. hasn’t captured my imagination the way other G-League Ignite prospects have, but that may be starting to change. Foster had previously struggled with bad tunnel vision and decision making when he had the ball. He has made phenomenal strides in this department, and it’s paying dividends. Sure, his assist totals are up, but it’s what the passing does for the rest of his game, and his team, that’s the icing on the cake. His reliable jump shot, funky as it may look, allows him to command attention at the top of the key. Now that he’s a passing threat from that space also, it opens up a lot of possibilities. He can reward cutters, operate as a short-roll playmaker in 4-on-3s, or keep the defense on their toes in DHO sets. I’m still leery of his defensive fit at the next level, but his offense is there.
-I don’t know that Kendric Davis will get a serious NBA look as a 5’11” senior point guard, but folks, Davis is nice with it. His handle is outrageous, and his pull-up game is nasty. He’s gone from a passable shooter to hitting 40% of his threes on 6.2/game. It may not be in the NBA, but he’ll be a pro player.
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