BaumBoards Prospect Overview, 12/21/2021: An Early Look at the NBL's Next Stars
Before I wrote about basketball, I hosted a professional wrestling podcast. For whatever reason, we had a sizeable chunk of listenership in Australia. Our Australian listeners were extremely cool people, and one of them (shoutout to Melbourne United supporter Australian Amy!) even sent me a care package full of treats that we can’t get in the United States! In that care package was a jar of vegemite. I’d heard of vegemite as a stereotypical Australian food, but I’d never seen it in person. I knew that was beloved by Aussies but derided as horrible by inhabitants of every other nation on earth. So, on a bored Saturday afternoon, I gave it a try. Thankfully for all of you, my wife captured a photograph of this life-altering moment.
IT WAS VERY BAD!
This experience has made me, in my own mind, an honorary Australian. Today, we head to THE LAND DOWN UNDER! Australia’s premier basketball organization, the NBL, is back in season! A new group of players have entered their “Next Stars” program in an effort to make it to the NBA. I’m going to focus on the ones that have piqued my interest the most early in the season. So grab a Foster’s (that’s Australian for beer), or if you don’t drink, grab a coffee and do a Tim-Tam Slam, and buckle up! If you’ve lasted through all this nonsense, GOOD ON YA! Without further ado:
Hugo Besson is a both a bucket and a problem. At 6’3”, Besson is a lights-out threat from deep who can get into his shot out of the dribble or off the catch with a quick motion. He’s automatic when left open. His first step is nice, and because he’s such a threat from behind the three-point line, opposing defenders tend to close out hot against him. Besson recognizes this, and it opens up his attacking game. He’s a mixed bag in this area right now. Besson is limited vertically, and while I can’t find his wingspan anywhere, it doesn’t appear to be anything crazy. As a result, Besson is fighting an uphill battle as a finisher. The good news is that Besson’s touch as a shooter carries over into his floater package, and his body control allows him to mix in some creative finishes to evade length around the rim.
Besson is also willing to put his body into the line of fire in order to get to the free throw line. As far as his passing goes, he’s not a point guard. He has run a slightly positive assist-to-turnover ratio for most of his career, though, and he’ll make the occasional intermediate read. Distribution will be a big swing skill for him, but as it stands, I wouldn’t classify it as a weakness.
My concerns with Besson primarily revolve around his lack of positional size. I think too many pundits are too comfortable slapping the “bench scorer” label on every undersized two-guard who gets buckets and can’t pass well enough to run the point. It’s really hard to be a bench scorer in the NBA! For every Lou Williams and Jordan Clarkson, there is an Andrew Goudelock or Jimmer Fredette. While Besson putting up numbers in a tough, physical league like the NBL is encouraging, it is by no means a guarantee that he will succeed against another step up in length, speed, and timing when he comes to the NBA. His size issues pop up on defense, too, where he has a difficult time walling off stronger, faster players. Hugo Besson has unquestionably been the best of the Next Stars prospects so far (17 PPG, 40% from three), but when it comes to the NBA, he feels more like a back end of the first round type talent than a lottery pick. There’s nothing wrong with that! It’s a great thing to be. It’s just really hard for players cut from that cloth to stick in the NBA.
Ousmane Dieng was the most hyped of the Next Stars, and to be frank, he’s disappointed thus far. He’s averaging 3.6 PPG and shooting 20% from the floor. This is especially concerning given that Dieng has never had a pro season shooting 38% or better from the floor, even though he was playing in a third-tier league in France last season. He’s still only 18, and he won’t turn 19 until May, but for someone with his physical gifts, you would hope for more.
There are still reasons why NBA evaluators are going to be enamored with Dieng. He’s 6’9” with long limbs and he’s a ridiculously fluid athlete for his size. He’s light on his feet, he’s buttery with the ball in his hands, and he has above-average passing vision for a player his size. Dieng is ahead of the curve from a feel standpoint, and you see it in his driving craft. Bigger ball handlers are often prone to strips because it’s harder for them to keep the ball low to the ground. You’ll see Dieng avoid this by picking up his dribble and keeping the ball high, out of reach from defenders, while taking long strides toward the rim. Despite the poor shooting numbers, there’s nothing that jumps out mechanically as desperately in need of repair. Defensively, he makes tremendous use of his length. He’s difficult to get around, and he knows how to wall up when his man is closer to the basket.
Still, he’s a project. Dieng needs to find a way to score efficiently, and he needs to put size on his boney frame. He has the craft to get where he wants some of the time, but in other instances, he’ll be sent flying by mild contact. Right now, it’s hard to pin down Dieng’s draft range. If he makes improvements throughout the season, I think there’s a lottery case to be made, but he’s more of a late first round/early second round gamble at the moment. In fact, to let you in on a little secret, I have a more complete Big Board that I keep to myself, and he’s currently 46th there. I lean more heavily on production early in the process, but it’s rough sign for him. If the draft were today, he’d undoubtedly go higher than that, and for certain teams, the gamble would be well worth it. But his career prospects are more tenuous than they’d seemed a few months ago.
Makur Maker is an experience. He is very much Thon Maker’s brother. He’s Thon Maker dialed up to 11. He’ll put the ball on the floor to set up a mini-step back three…
And he’ll also do whatever this is…
Maker is also a threat to grab-and-go. A threat to who? The opposing defense, but also maybe his own team, because this is something else.
One of my core draft principles as that I will always choose to bet on a player who I know can do things but needs to reel it in over a player who I don’t know can do things. Makur Maker can absolutely do things. His body is tremendous for a young big man, too, and I don’t think he’ll face any major difficulties adjusting to NBA contact. His motor is rock solid; he runs the floor hard, and he works hard for rebounds. There is a lot of fine-tuning needed for Maker, no question. I would never draft him with the expectation that he is going to play right away unless I was early into a complete rebuild. He’s going to do things that drive NBA coaches nuts during his first few seasons. Maker has also struggled to put the ball in the basket, with a 22.7 FG% as of this writing. But at the end of the day, there is an interesting set of skills here, Maker appears to play hard, and if he can tighten the screws to his game, he could be the elusive 3-and-D big so many teams want. I like him as a two-way guy.
Ariel Hukporti grew on me. The 7-footer finds himself in a critical back-up role for Melbourne United, the NBL’s defending champions. He looks the part. Hukporti has good end-to-end speed, his body is nothing to sneeze at, and he contests vertically well. When he gets the ball in the post, he can really sky up before releasing a baby hook shot. He’s active defensively, and he became more ravenous on the glass over the course of the games I watched.
There are still frustrating moments with Hukporti, though. He’ll leave his feet too early for blocks. His offensive footwork can be downright disastrous, leading to him traveling or getting stuck down low in the worst way. In Melbourne United’s game against the South East Melbourne Phoenix, he launched a hook shot straight into the hands of an awaiting defender. I don’t buy his touch, as he’ll occasionally smoke easier looks around the basket.
Hukporti is in the wait-and-see category for me. He’s genuinely looked so much better game-by-game that I don’t want to firmly slot him anywhere right now. The physical tools are there, he plays hard, and the flashes make him look like a real NBA bench big man. Unfortunately, his occasional mental lapses and lack of touch give me severe pause. He’s an undrafted or two-way player as of now, but I wouldn’t write him off.
Luke Travers isn’t technically a part of the Next Stars program, but the 20-year-old is someone I would keep an eye on for further down the line. Travers is a high-feel player and he’s 6’8”. He can place passes well, works exceptionally hard on the boards, and he’s a smart rotational defender. Unfortunately, he’s not a great athlete, and he looks unnatural moving around the court. He’s also struggled as a three-point shooter. Despite these warts, I think Travers has a chance at an NBA career if he can start to hit from deep at a consistent level. The game processing here is so advanced, and his peskiness could make him a serviceable bench player if he ever shoots it.
The Expanding Big Board as of 12/21/2021:
1. Paolo Banchero
2. Jabari Smith Jr.
3. Chet Holmgren
4. Jaden Ivey
5. Jalen Duren
6. Jaden Hardy
7. Kendall Brown
8. JD Davison
9. Patrick Baldwin Jr.
10. Bennedict Mathurin
The latest addition to the Expanding Big Board is Bennedict Mathurin. I covered him in greater depth last week, but it can be boiled down to this: he’s a great athlete, he’s a great shooter, and he plays defense. I’m generally a believer in the concept that players tend to have much lower floors than the consensus will admit, but Mathurin profiles as a guy with safety valves that make it hard to imagine him failing as an NBA player. It’s silly, but a question I like to ask myself when evaluating a prospect is, “can you see this player getting embarrassed on an NBA court?” Mathurin is an easy no. His feel is solid enough and he plays within himself to the extent that he won’t try to bite off more than he can chew. Even if the shot doesn’t fall, his vertical and lateral athletic capabilities will prevent him from being a liability on either end. He’s rock solid, he’s improved this season, and I think there is still real potential to be untapped with his off the dribble game.
I’d also like to spend some time on Chet Holmgren here. I watched Gonzaga’s game against Texas Tech, and Holmgren was utterly dominant. After the game, I checked the box score: 5 points, 11 rebounds, 2 steals, and 2 blocks. That doesn’t read as dominant at all, but it’s exactly why watching the games is so important. Chet completely controlled the paint on defense. Even a physical, athletic team like Texas Tech couldn’t do anything with him around the basket. Drivers pulled up short, big men thought they had him where they wanted him but he got into their shots anyway, and occasionally, players tried to lob one over him only to meet a horrific fate.
Chet is a special defensive player. I’m lower on his offensive ceiling than some, but I still think he profile as an above-average option on that end. There are two things that will separate him from the pact: his outside shot and his passing ability. He’s not lethal from long range at this point, but it’s still rare for young big men to be effective behind the three point line at all. The icing on the cake is that he’s shown nice flashes of moving into his shot, and not just basic standing-in-the-corner-catch-and-shoot attempts.
He also boasts outstanding passing vision, and his long arms allow him to deliver tough ones over double teams.
Holmgren’s potential as a short-roll passer, dribble hand-off operator, and top-of-the-key threat make him a much more diverse offensive player than most other center prospects. While I don’t quite see him in the Paolo/Jabari tier, as I value being a potential primary offensive option more than anything, it’s becoming harder and harder for me to see someone overtaking him for the number three spot. Just a few weeks ago, I thought Jaden Ivey could do it. But even in his lesser offensive performances, Holmgren still controls so much of the game that his value is undeniable.
I’d also like to give a tip of the hat to Jaden Hardy. He’s made a few simple improvements that are starting to make the game easier for him. While his handle isn’t the most polished, he’s starting to utilize it more. A common knock on Hardy is that he doesn’t have the burst to separate, but in recent games, he’s used dribble moves and footwork to penetrate and get off better looks. When he gets into the paint, his interior passing has been noticeably craftier, and he’s been smarter about the type of lay-ups he uses to avoid the length and speed of professional rim protectors. He’s also shooting 93.8% from the free throw line, which, paired with his ridiculous range, make his subpar shooting numbers more palatable.
QUICK HITS:
-Let’s stay on the G-League Ignite tip for a moment. I am falling in love with MarJon Beauchamp’s game. While they are completely different players with opposite physical builds, his mid-range touch is gorgeous in a similar way to Bryce McGowens. Beauchamp isn’t on the same level as a free throw shooter, but the silky elbow jumpers make me feel more comfortable projecting his three point shot to a respectable level in the long run. He’s a freight train in transition, but he’s also becoming more poised in those instances, remaining under control and making the pass to a teammate when it’s there. His passing as a whole has taken a big step forward, and he’s doing a tremendous job as a connector, especially operating around the elbow. He can make high-low passes with perfect execution and quickly sling the ball around the perimeter when needed. I’m a sucker for aggressive rebounders, and Beauchamp fits that profile to a T, always looking to gobble up boards or send home a put-back dunk. Even without the outside shot, his savvy and physicality are in a place where I think he’s ready to play NBA minutes.
-I’m still into Dyson Daniels. His three point shooting has taken a dip, and any contact sends him flying, but I’m not selling my stock. He has some of the most beautiful offensive footwork in this class in order to set up his drives, he can always find a pass when he’s about to get in trouble, and he has buttery touch. Defensively, while his frame doesn’t do him any favors, he’s still super engaged, knows what he’s doing, and gets into the right positions.
-I have no idea what to do with Michael Foster, though. His stats look so great on paper, but the eye test can be tougher. He so visibly struggles with his balance guarding on the perimeter that I find myself wincing when he’s switched onto smaller players. His jumper is also really odd. It looks like a mix between that video of Devin Vassell goofing around that freaked everyone out pre-draft in 2020 and a shot your uncle would clank off the backboard. Foster launches the ball above, and almost behind, his head before flailing his arms toward the basket. He makes it at a respectable clip, but it feels wrong. On a positive note, he’s such a force physically. He’ll routinely bully his way out of double around the basket, and he’s great at using his length to disrupt penetrators on the other end.
-Max Abmas is starting to make more advanced passing reads on a consistent basis. I’m still not sure he’s a guy I would draft based on his defensive and physical limitations, but better distribution is absolutely the path for him, and it’s nice to see him putting in the work.
-He’s not a 2021 prospect, but keep an eye on Creighton’s Trey Alexander down the line. His driving craft is sublime, and he’s a pesky defender. At 6’4”, his outside shot will need to be better than the 26.3% it’s been so far, but he’s an 84.6% free throw shooter, and I think you’ll see his three-point numbers tick up sooner than later based on his touch.
-Nikola Jovic had a big performance against Split, going for 25 points on 9-for-15 shooting and 3-for-7 from three. He’s continued to play more assertive basketball, getting better looks inside and hitting threes off the dribble on the outside. After some early disappointments, he’ll be climbing back up boards again.
-If you enjoyed this piece, please consider subscribing (it’s free!) and following @BaumBoards on twitter! The site is free, but if you feel compelled, you can send me a few bucks on Venmo, @MaxwellBaumbach. My wife and I just had our first child, so financial incentives are a great way to keep me motivated and help my wife be a bit more understanding when I’m watching Australian basketball on my laptop while holding the baby.