BaumBoards Prospect Overview, 1/18/2022: E.J. Liddell is Good at Basketball
Big Ten prospects Johnny Davis, Jaden Ivey, and Keegan Murray have all exploded this season. This has unfairly caused E.J. Liddell's improvements to become an afterthought.
Last week, I led off by talking about Johnny Davis, who has been the most exciting story in college basketball. Davis went from being an unheralded reserve who scored 7 points per game as a freshman to being one of the top bucket-getters in the sport, putting up 21.7 points per game and generating buzz as a National Player of the Year candidate. Currently, I have Davis ranked fifth on my Big Board behind Jaden Ivey, another NBA prospect who took a big step forward. Coming into the season, the big knock on Ivey was his outside shooting, as he was a meager 25.8% from deep. Now, Ivey is hitting 43.6% of his shots from distance. Iowa’s Keegan Murray has also captured the attention of evaluators, going from “star in his role” to “actual star” with ease. However, another Big Ten prospect has made a slew of improvements, but in my opinion, has yet to receive proper recognition. That man is E.J. Liddell.
I believe there are two primary reasons E.J. Liddell hasn’t gotten his flowers.
The first is that his improvements are fundamentally unsexy.
Okay, so his blocks per game numbers going from 1.1 to 3.0 is pretty wild and impressive. But it’s the why his blocks have increased that doesn’t inspire much chatter. Liddell isn’t a jump-out-of-the-gym athlete. He can soar if he has a runway, but he’s not a pogo stick leaper by any stretch of the imagination. Liddell has started to excel as a shot blocker because he has thoroughly adjusted to the speed of the college game, and his reactions are quicker than a cat.
Liddell has also done a wonderful job of improving his mobility. His lateral movement was a question mark in the past, and has been noted as a reason he chose to return to Ohio State for his junior season rather than entering the NBA Draft last year. So far this year, we’ve seen Liddell contain Paolo Banchero (currently #1 on my board) and stifle Johnny Davis (currently #5 on my board) when switched onto him. Ohio State was the first team to hold Davis below the 15 point line, and Liddell was a driving force in that accomplishment. There can no longer be a question as to whether or not he’s up to snuff when having to guard out on the perimeter. “This guy is better at sliding left to right and backwards and forwards than he did last year” isn’t exciting, but it’s going to make a big difference for Liddell’s bank account in a few months.
Another area of improvement for Liddell: his outside shooting. As a freshman, Liddell was a 19.2% three-point shooter who took less than one attempt per game. As a sophomore, he upped his volume to 2.8/game and hit them at a respectable 33.8%. That’s a solid number, but it isn’t quite “stretch four” territory, especially when you factor in the NBA three-point line being further away from the basket. Plus, Liddell’s mechanics were a bit wonky, his pop time wasn’t ideal, and he’d often release the ball on the way down, making the aesthetics of the shot even more visually displeasing. This year, Liddell is up to 3.9/game, and he’s hitting 38.9% of his attempts. Last season, Liddell averaged 1.062 points per possession on catch and shoot jumpers; this year, that number is up to 1.269. That’s tremendous! The shot still looks a little funky at times, but it’s cleaner and quicker than it was before. It’s not Jaden Ivey’s near 20% uptick, but it’s solid, consistent improvement.
The second reason E.J. Liddell hasn’t gotten his flowers is that he’s a fundamentally unsexy prospect.
I think E.J. Liddell is likely a late first round, early second round name at this point in the process. He’s a 6’7” power forward who may play a little bit of center in smaller line-ups, so his positional size isn’t tantalizing. He’ll be 21 on draft night, not 18. His physical tools are almost something he succeeds in spite of and has worked hard to bring up to this level rather something that captures the imagination of Draft Twitter. He’s not a pre-draft candidate who could be a star in five years; he’s a guy who will likely either stick as a role player or simply not pan out pretty quickly.
Here’s the thing with those exciting gambles in the second round: most of them don’t work out. That doesn’t mean teams should never try, but if you’re an organization looking to get good basketball players onto your team immediately, a guy like E.J. Liddell is going to make a lot of sense. He knows his role, he can shoot, he moves the ball, he won’t get embarrassed on defense, and he’s put in the work to improve upon his problem areas. His 56% adjusted field goal percentage on pick-and-pop jumpers, strong body, ability to slide his feet, reaction time, and work ethic are all NBA level tools.
He’s not going to sneak into the lottery, and he’s never going to be an All-Star, but E.J. Liddell is good at basketball. And when your job is to field a team of professional basketball players, it’s nice to have players who are good at the job.
The Expanding Big Board as of 1/18/2022:
1. Paolo Banchero
2. Jabari Smith Jr.
3. Chet Holmgren
4. Jaden Ivey
5. Johnny Davis
6. Jaden Hardy
7. Benedict Mathurin
8. TyTy Washington
9. AJ Griffin (Previously 10th)
10. Jalen Duren (Previously 9th)
11. Keegan Murray (Previously unranked)
12. Kendall Brown (Previously 11th)
13. Patrick Baldwin Jr. (Previously 12th)
14. Dyson Daniels (Previously 13th)
15. Nikola Jovic (Previously 14th)
16. Ochai Agbaji (Previously 15th)
-Not much happening this week!
-First of all, big ups to TyTy Washington for validating me in a big way after I was one of the first people to soar him up my board. He’s a real scoring threat off the dribble, and I believe in his passing. The next step for him is getting deep into the paint more consistently. I give him the benefit of the doubt to a degree, as Kentucky’s starting five isn’t exactly a spacing dream team, but I’d still like to see more commitment to penetration and some counter moves on a more consistent basis.
-AJ Griffin jumps Jalen Duren. I think Duren has been fine, honestly. I can’t blame Memphis’ problems on him when he has no one who can get him the ball and the line-up is changing constantly. I’ve just been really impressed by Griffin as he continues to get more time. I don’t love his feet on the ball defensively, and I was bothered by how he looked chasing his man around screens. Still, he’s improved his shot-making profile, showcasing some nice side-steps into successful threes. It feels like the ball is going in every time he shoots it, and it’s been great to see him keep up his production after being moved into Duke’s starting line-up.
-Welcome to the party, Keegan Murray! I understood people not wanting to put the cart ahead of the horse with him after he was dominating small schools early in the season, but like…what did you want him to do? Since entering conference play, Murray has held rock solid. Gone is the flat jumper from last season; his outside shot has a more natural trajectory now, and it’s going in the basket. Murray has also done a phenomenal job scaling up in role. Last season, he was purely an “energy and chaos” bench player for Iowa, flying all over for cuts, put-backs, dunks, blocks, and steals. Now, he’s a leading man who has shown solid ball skills to get into jumpers, but still makes life difficult for the opposing team when he’s on defense. I also love that we saw him in a smaller role last year, as it’s now sort of a “sneak peak in hindsight” of what he could look like early in his NBA career. If everything breaks right, he’s a four man who can guard a few positions comfortably and stretch the floor. If not, he’s a good enough athlete and defender to still hang around for several years.
QUICK HITS:
-I’ve been sleeping on Notre Dame freshman Blake Wesley. He’s fast with the ball, has good offensive footwork, and has a polished pull-up repertoire. At 6’5” with long arms, he can dribble, pass, and shoot. His 2.3 assists per game understate his passing ability. When a Notre Dame player grabs a rebound, Wesley is the guy they look to outlet the ball to, and that speaks volumes given how many veterans are on the squad. He’s trustworthy, but he still has high upside because of his physical tools. He’s my favorite to be the next man added to my board.
-NC State’ Dereon Seabron has created a lot of buzz as of late, and I started to digging deeper into his game tape last week. I’m in. He’s a 6’7” point forward who is aggressive and shifty. There are two big reasons why I like Seabron’s NBA chances despite his 22.6 3PT%. The first is that he’s a real threat to grab-and-go, averaging 9.7 rebounds per game. Rebound tends to translate, and that will give him a safety valve to operate in the area where he is most dangerous. The second reason is that he’s the best player on NC State right now, so the scouting report on him already that he can’t shoot. It doesn’t matter! Seabron still has the craft, power, and athleticism to get where he wants on the floor. His body control is outstanding, and he has a few clever moves where he can get to the rim while barely putting the ball on the floor, preventing defenders from getting into his handle.
-I like to check in on smaller conference players with interesting statistical profiles. This week, I watched Utah Valley’s Fardaws Aimaq. At 6’11”, he’s posting 19.9 PPG, 13.8 RPG, and 1.6 BPG while hitting 34.8% of his threes. Aimaq is a nice mover for his size and looks the part of a major conference player despite competing in the WAC. Even against bigger schools, he completely controls the glass. His shooting touch is solid. My biggest concern for him is still on the defensive side, as I’m not sure his rim protection skills are at an NBA level. If you’re going to struggle in that area, and you’re not truly switchable, you’ve got to be outstanding everywhere else, and I’m not sure he’s there. I could see him getting an Exhibit-10.
-It was nice to see Peyton Watson hold his own against Oregon. It wasn’t a great performance by any means, but him merely looking like he belonged was a great step forward as UCLA enters conference play. His defensive tools were on full display as he caused chaos and blocked two shots. I’d like to see him return to school next year to fully get his confidence back. He’s still interesting.
-Trevion Williams has continued to play himself into the draft conversation. I tend to bet on weight loss guys, partially because I am one myself. I understand the concerns around his athleticism, but once you’re no longer having to lose weight, you begin to be able to make improvements in those areas rather quickly. I say this as a 31 year old who just started dunking again two years ago after having completed a three year weight loss journey. There’s a real chance he turns a corner there.
-I feel like I undersold Julian Champagnie’s athletic improvements the last time I wrote about him (during Fringe Week). His feet look better on both sides of the ball, and I’m starting to toss defensive concerns at the next level to the side. Similar to E.J. Liddell, his positional understanding goes a long way, even if he’s not as quick to react as Liddell.
-After watching Jalen Williams against Gonzaga, I’m liking the idea of him as a second rounder more and more. Look how he did Chet dirty in that clip! I listed his statistical profile in the tweet above, too. He’s smooth, comfortable, confident, and productive. His shot profile is impressive, and that allows me put his three point volume to the side. He knows how to play. Williams is on track for a two-way deal as of now.
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