Back on December 2nd, 2021, I unloaded a spicy take on the popular website Twitter Dot Com. I prepared for backlash, but it never came. Instead, I received a few likes and that was it. But still, the opinion I voiced was not popular at the time. That opinion: Johnny Davis is a first round talent; specifically, the 18th best prospect in this draft cycle.
Now, over a month later, if you said Johnny Davis is 18th on your board, people would call you a big dummy! He’s far too good for that low of a ranking. Davis has emerged as a National Player of the Year favorite, with averages of 22.6 PPG, 7.4 RPG, 2.6 APG, 1.4 SPG, and .8 BPG on 45.2/33.3/80.5 shooting splits. Listed at 6’5” with a 6’8”ish wingspan, Davis profiles as a player who should be able to guard 1s, 2s, and 3s at the NBA level. Per Synergy Sports, he’s in the 91st percentile of all pick-and-roll ball handlers, meaning that he’s a trustworthy passer and creator with the ball in his hands. Davis is a destroyer in the mid-range, he’s strong through contact, and he’s improved greatly as a distributor. His assist numbers won’t blow you away, but there’s a reason for that: he’s surrounded by poor shooters. The 3PT%s of his fellow starters: 33.3%, 31.4%, 29.4%, and 0%. Tyler Wahl, who owns the 0% number, still takes over one per game, too. Needless to say, this isn’t an ideal floor spacing situation, and the crunching of the floor limits what Davis can do as a passer.
The real kicker with Davis is his effort. Davis doesn’t play like a star, taking takes it easy on the defensive end because he carries a heavy work load on the other side of the court. Instead, he hustles like a 10th man who will scratch and claw for every single opportunity.
His effort transcends hustle plays, too. You can see it in his shot profile. Headed into the season, I was low on Davis in large part due to his unwillingness to shoot threes. Davis’ percentage on the year is down from 38 to 33, but he’s taking them much more frequently, going from a measly 2.9 attempts per 100 possessions to 8.0 this year. Given the increase in volume, that’s not a bad dip! The real thing to focus on, though, is that Davis knew this was a criticism with his game, and he fixed the problem. He’s also shooting a real variety of threes, and has mixed in step-back jumpers from deep, including one that he drained in the face of E.J. Liddell against Ohio State.
A final feather in Davis’ cap: consistency. Davis has yet to score less than 15 points in a game this season. That’s a feat in and of itself, but it’s even more impressive when you consider the level of defensive attention he gets.
Johnny Davis is better than almost everyone thought he would be. Still, I want to pump the breaks with the, “should he be in the discussion for the number one pick?” level of talk. While he’s shooting more from deep, his jumper isn’t where you would want it to be for a wing player you select with a top three pick. My biggest area of concern is his finishing. Currently, Davis grades out in the middle of the pack in college basketball for shooting percentage at the rim in the half court, and much of that is due to his lack of vertical explosiveness. He’s more of a below-the-rim player, and that’s fine, but he doesn’t have a complete floater package to compensate for that at this point. Right now, he can coast by on his strength at the rim, but it’s hard to imagine him being above average in the NBA against bigger players when he can’t do that against college competition.
Ultimately, I want to sit back and enjoy the ride with Johnny Davis. Before the season, I ranked him as the 68th best returning prospect in college basketball. 68th! The fact that we are even having a discussion about having the discussion of him as a top pick is a testament to his work ethic, competitiveness, and drive. Johnny Davis is immensely talented, but he still plays like he’s lucky to be on the court. It’s awesome, and we shouldn’t take a second of this season for granted.
The Expanding Big Board as of 1/11/2022:
1. Paolo Banchero
2. Jabari Smith Jr.
3. Chet Holmgren
4. Jaden Ivey
5. Johnny Davis (Previously 14th)
6. Jaden Hardy
7. Benedict Mathurin (Previously 8th)
8. TyTy Washington (Previously 10th)
9. Jalen Duren (Previously 5th)
10. AJ Griffin (Previously 12th)
11. Kendall Brown (Previously 7th)
12. Patrick Baldwin Jr. (Previously 10th)
13. Dyson Daniels
14. Nikola Jovic (Previously Unranked)
15. Ochai Agbaji (Previously Unranked)
Off the board: JD Davison (Previously 11th)
Boy oh boy, what a week! Lots of movement!
-Things hold steady at the top. Though I’m continuously impressed by Jabari Smith Jr.’s game by game improvement, but I thought Paolo Banchero had one of his best passing games of the season against Miami. His distribution felt stagnant for a while, and it’s nice to see him pick it back up with authority. Chet Holmgren keeps his grip on the 3 spot after a dominant performance against Pepperdine, and despite a recent rough patch, Jaden Ivey’s upside is still tantalizing to me, and he’s remained solid as a shooter, which was my biggest area of concern.
-Johnny Davis moves up to the five spot, because, ARE YOU JUST KIDDING ME I JUST WROTE A WHOLE THING ABOUT HIM, I’M NOT WRITING ABOUT HIM ANY MORE, GO READ WHAT I JUST WROTE AGAIN IF YOU WANT MORE DETAILS.
-Let’s talk the 6/7 range. Bennedict Mathurin jumps up, as the more I watch of him, the more I trust him. He’s such a consistent force as a shooter, his defense isn’t mind-blowing but it’s definitely not mind-numbing, either, and his plus-rebounding allows for a lot of lineup versatility without leaving anything on the table. His passing growth and athleticism lead me to believe he has more upside, and he’s done a nice job of getting his own shots when needed. I’m still keeping Jaden Hardy ahead of him, as despite his poor percentages from deep, his range and ability off the bounce makes me see them in a similar tier as shooters. What gives Hardy the edge is that despite his handle woes at times, I still think he’s capable of doing more with the ball than Mathurin is at this point in time. Hardy’s growth was on display in his January 7th G-League outing, as he found open teammates more consistently and has been able to generate more rim pressure with each game.
-TyTy Washington rises after a marvelous 17 assist outing against Georgia. Look, I know it’s Georgia, but Washington’s passing has been great recently in general, particularly his lob passes and post entries. The absence of Sahvir Wheeler has allowed him to show that he is, indeed, a point guard. Right now, he’s in the 90th percentile among eligible players in catch-and shoots, too, which shows his off-ball gravity. He’s an actual combo guard! He’s not part-point guard, part-shooting guard. He can be both! His versatility will provide real value and flexibility at the NBA level. His off-the-dribble game has been gorgeous lately, too; he’s 53.8% on runners and an amazing 75% at the rim. The next step will be getting into that area of the floor more consistently.
-Jalen Duren drops more for philosophical reasons than anything else. The center position doesn’t hold a lot of value if you aren’t in elite company, and with players like Evan Mobley, Chet Holmgren, and Victor Wembanyama all entering the league around the same time as him, what are his odds that he becomes a top five or so center in the league at any point? What about top ten? It gets dicey pretty quickly if he can’t add more to his offensive game. I still like Duren and view him as an NBA starter long-term, but I would rather role the dice on the players above him as of now.
-The 10-13 range isn’t too exciting. AJ Griffin rises as he continues to provide value as a spacer and shooter. I can’t say I’m thrilled with him defensively, though, as he got back-cut to death twice late in Miami’s upset victory over Duke. His attentiveness and decision making can leave a bit to be desired, but he has a pro body and can shoot. Kendall Brown slides in parallel with his defensive metrics, though I still love a lot of what he can do on offense. Patrick Baldwin falls as a result of other players jumping up while he sits out with an injury. Dyson Daniels stays put.
-We have two new additions to the board! Nikola Jovic has really put it together for Mega as the year has progressed. He’s 6’10, 37.7% from three, and has a dangerous passing game. It’s difficult to find a players with his size and skill. He’s held back by his skinny frame, shaky defensive effort, and lack of quick feet. Jovic desperately needs to get stronger so that he can improve his finishing. If he could attack with more credibility, it would open up his passing game much more. Still, he’s got size, he can shoot, and he’s a high-feel player. I touched on Ochai Agbaji last week, and I don’t have too much to add. At 6’5”, he has good size for a wing, drains threes (47.3% on 6.5/game), and he’s unquestionably an NBA caliber athlete. This year, he’s been more aggressive as a penetrator, which has allowed him to get to the line more often. His upside isn’t very high, as he’s a college senior and doesn’t show great ball handling or passing feel, but you could do far worse at the edge of the lottery.
-JD Davison has been a mess lately, sadly. Though he had a bounce-back game against Missouri, his shooting has been brutal for the last month or so, and his decision making has regressed. Now that teams know how to play him, he’s been less effective. I’m still enamored with his upside, but he has a ways to go to reach it, and his floor could be rough.
QUICK HITS:
-Stephen Gillaspie and I have started a new project, Pick & Roll! You can check it out HERE. We’ll be doing back-and-forth, collaborative pieces. This week, we broke down Chet Holmgren, Johnny Davis, Tari Eason, Alex Fudge, and Jaime Jaquez. Go subscribe!
-Don’t fret, Keegan Murray is the last player off my board. There’s a chance he’ll move up with authority next week as I spend more time on his film.
-Toledo’s Ryan Rollins is a mid-major name to keep an eye on. The 6’4” guard is averaging 19.1 PPG on 46.2/33.3/83.3 shooting splits, along with 5.1 RPG, 2.9 APG, and 2.1 SPG. For the last two seasons, he’s been given a lot of responsibility in Toledo’s offense. He can create on the ball, and he’s a fantastic tough shot maker in the mid-range. His pull-up jumper looks clean, and I think his three-point percentage would likely be better in a different context. I’m a big believer in his shooting given that the variety is so difficult. Rollins is a potent north-south athlete with pesky hands on defense. His passing game is a work in progress; he has some nifty interior dump passes in his bag, but he’ll try to bite off more than he can chew at times.
-Aminu Mohammed is super intriguing. I’m still early in the process with him, but I like what I see. As a man with a +9 wingspan, I immediately identified with Mohammed, who must similarly have an awful time trying to buy dress shirts. The length of his arms was the absolute first thing I noticed; he’ll have no problem guarding up. On top of his length, Mohammed is strong; players can’t drive through him, and he’s able to bully his way to his spots. He uses his size and length well to get opportunities around the rim, but his touch there isn’t great, and he’ll miss some easy ones. Shooting will be a swing area, as he’s 36% from three but only taking 2.1/game. Besides that, he does everything else you want a strong, 6’5” wing to do; he rebounds, gets into passing lanes, finds opportunities for blocks, and can make the right pass.
-Though he struggled with turnovers against LSU, it was encouraging to see Kennedy Chandler go 5-for-9 from two against a squad with so many lengthy, athletic defenders.
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-Two freshman Pepperdine prospects to keep an eye on as likely returners: Houston Mallette and Maxwell Lewis. Mallette has good size at 6’5”, is a willing and effective shooter, and plays tough defense. Lewis is a classic “if he shoots it” forward at 6’7”. He’s a great athlete who is wildly active on defense and is tremendous with the ball for his size. Pepperdine may have gotten routed by Gonzaga, but the game was worth watching solely to see those two.
-I’ll be keeping tabs on Obinna Anochili-Killen from Marshall. I went to check on Taevion Kinsey, who has struggled mightily with his outside shot this season, and came away wondering if Anochili-Killen is the better pro prospect. Let’s start with the good: 6’8”, 13.8 PPG, 7.0 RPG, and shooting splits of 54.3/43.1/75.9. Now, let’s get to the excellent: 4.1 BPG! This man blocks shots like crazy! Anochili-Killen boasts a 14.2 BLK%! That’s outrageous! Now, let’s venture into the tricky stuff; he’s currently 199 pounds. Obviously that’s very thin for his height, so it’s hard for him to operate as an NBA big. He also doesn’t have great ball skills and his three-point volume is low, so he’s not really a wing at the NBA level. For now, he profiles as a skinny 4 who can stretch the floor a bit and protect the rim. It’s a very specific and uncommon skillset, but I think it could really pop in the right environment.
BaumBoards Prospect Overview, 1/11/2022: Heeeeeere's Johnny!
Great work as always Maxwell!